774
FXUS64 KOHX 200525
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1225 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Our quiet weather is going to continue. We should start to see
the cloud cover thin out as we head into the overnight, some high
clouds will linger through. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s
to around 70. Overall fog is unlikely but maybe some patchy spots
by daybreak in the normal fog prone areas. The strong ridge over
the northeast will start to build south and west. This will bring
the return of the heat with low 90s tomorrow and continued
warming into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Building high pressure influences surface and aloft will provide
dry conditions through Thursday afternoon. Current regional
temperature trends generally in line with forecasted high values
for this afternoon ranging from upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s
Cumberland Plateau Region as scattered to broken upper level
cloudiness persist across mid state region. Lows tonight will
continue seasonably mild trend of late ranging upper 60s to lower
70s, mid 60s Cumberland Plateau Region. Highs on Thursday, as
upper level cloudiness diminishes, will rise into low to mid 90s,
upper 80s to around 90 for locations just west of and across
Cumberland Plateau Region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

High pressure influences surface and aloft will continue to be
dominant weather player across our area as apex of upper level
ridging influences continue to shift east to west across much of
eastern CONUS through Saturday. Expecting lows both Thursday and
Friday nights to range mid 60s Cumberland Plateau Region up to
mid 70s elsewhere. Highs will continue to climb to potentially
around century mark for Nashville Metro Area, with at least mid
to upper 90s at other locations west of Cumberland Plateau
Region, lower 90s across it, by Saturday afternoon. Upper level
ridging influences subside with more of a quasi zonal
northwesterly flow upper level pattern becoming established
across our area as Saturday night into Sunday progresses, bringing
chances of showers and thunderstorms back to our area by Sunday
afternoon per expected embedded shortwave passage in flow. High
temperatures on Sunday could be quite similar to those
experienced on Saturday across our area as rainfall chances will
be isolated at best, mainly across northern and eastern portions.
Look for ridging influences aloft to build in from west as first
part of next work week progresses, but keeping enough moisture
around our neighborhood, i.e. "dirty" upper level ridge pattern,
to keep chances of isolated, to even scattered, showers and
thunderstorms in forecast as a surface front potentially
approaches mid state region from northwest as Sunday into Sunday
night progresses, but does not make it through our area. Hot
conditions will continue though. Highs in mid to upper 90s west
of Cumberland Plateau Region, upper 80s to lower 90s across it,
will be possible Monday through Wednesday. Lows each night will
continue to range mid 60s Cumberland Plateau Region up to mid 70s
elsewhere. From Saturday through next Wednesday, there will be at
least some areas each daily afternoon west of Cumberland Plateau
Region that will experience afternoon heat index values up to
around 105 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Mostly VFR conditions expected for this TAF cycle. The only
exception is MVFR to IFR fog at CSV/SRB starting around 07-08Z.
This should last through 11-12Z. Winds will be 10 kts or less
with mostly a southeast fetch at 13Z/Thu.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      95  74  96  74 /   0   0  10  10
Clarksville    92  72  93  72 /   0   0  10  10
Crossville     88  66  88  67 /   0   0  10  10
Columbia       93  70  96  72 /   0   0  10  10
Cookeville     89  69  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
Jamestown      89  67  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
Lawrenceburg   92  69  94  71 /   0   0  10  10
Murfreesboro   94  72  96  72 /   0   0  10  10
Waverly        92  71  93  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Unger