410
FXUS64 KOHX 181642
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1142 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Despite a continuance of low cloud coverage across a good portion
of mid state region, latest suite of forecast model runs showing
depth of current moisture eroding slowly as afternoon through
nighttime hours progress. Will continue with current high
temperature forecast for today as current regional temperature
trends continue to support forecasted afternoon high temperature
values. Tonight lows will be on seasonably warm side ranging
generally low to mid 60s, around 60 Cumberland Plateau Region.
With light and variable winds becoming predominate after midnight
tonight, patchy to areas of fog formation being possible lasting
thru the early morning hours across our area. Look for strong
upper level ridging influences to build in from our west
especially as Thursday progresses. High temperatures will be more
like typical summertime normals, ranging upper 80s to lower 90s,
mid 80s for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau
Region under generally mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Upper level ridging influences will be dominant weather player
through upcoming weekend with atmospheric low level ridging
influences also continuing. Thus dry conditions will also continue
to prevail. This enhancing warm air advection scenario means that
high temperatures could reach into low to mid 90s, upper 80s to
around 90 for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau
Region with seasonably mild lows spanning the 60s this weekend.
Good thing is that afternoon humidity values will only span the
40s so maximum afternoon heat index values will be at or even
slightly lower than forecasted max temperatures. Look for upper
level troughing influences to become more enhanced bisecting
northeast to southwest across central CONUS as next Monday
progresses, then slowly push eastward as mid portion of next work
week approaches into our area. A slow moving surface cold front
may even approach from our northwest by Wednesday. This will
bring chances of rainfall back to mid state region. Currently,
only isolated to scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder
look to be possible with only light rainfall amounts expected.
This change in the weather pattern will result in a slow cold air
advection scenario commencing across our area as first half of
next work week progresses. Highs by next Wednesday afternoon will
be closer to seasonal normal values as lows continue to remain
mild mainly in mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

LIFR to IFR CIGs are impacting the Upper Cumberland this morning
including SRB/CSV while MVFR conditions are being observed around
BNA/MQY. CIGs are expected to lift back to VFR conditions through
the late morning as daytime mixing increases. Winds will be out of
the N/NE through the TAF period with relatively light winds 5kt or
less. Tonight, another period of low CIGs looks to impacts areas
east of I65. Mainly MVFR with some pockets of IFR CIGs possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  68  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    87  66  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     80  59  83  58 /  10   0   0   0
Columbia       86  64  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     81  62  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
Jamestown      80  61  83  59 /  10   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   85  64  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   86  65  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        86  65  90  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Cravens