987
FXUS64 KOHX 151722
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1222 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through tonight)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The band of showers (Francine remnants) that was focused over our
southwest counties the past couple of days has shifted farther
southwest today as dry air has pushed in from the north and east.
Still, there will be just enough moisture and instability for a
few showers or brief thunderstorms this afternoon and early
evening for areas along and southwest of I-24. Any storm impacts
should be brief with coverage mostly in the 20 to 30 percent
range. Otherwise the rest of the day will be partly to mostly
sunny with warm temperatures in the 80s.

Any showers or isolated storms will dissipate quickly this
evening. Late night may bring some patchy fog as most areas dip to
the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The rest of this week looks dry with pleasant nights and warm
days. A strong ridge over the Great Lakes and New England will
push dry and stable air into the area for the start of the week.
Later in the week, another ridge from our southwest will spread
across the region. This pattern will block us off from any
significant wet weather systems. One of those systems will be a
low pressure system along the east coast that could become a
tropical low. Most models keep the impacts form this system out
of our area. The GFS tracks more to the west, but the GFS is
considered an outlier. Even with a western drift, odds are very
low for any meaningful rainfall in our coverage area. At this
point, we do have some 10-20 percent shower chances along the
Plateau midweek. Otherwise, dry through the week.

Clear nights and mostly sunny days will be in the forecast across
Middle Tennessee this week. Dry air will allow temps to drop to
comfortable levels at night with near normal lows. A few patches
of shallow fog will be possible each night, mainly along lakes
and rivers and in valleys. The sunny days will be warm with highs
running a few degrees above normal throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

While storms are possible in Middle TN in the 19Z/Sun-00Z/Mon time
frame, confidence and coverage is too low to prevail at this
time. Will handle with amendments this afternoon as needed. Winds
will be out of the east with a occasional gust of 13-15 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      65  88  63  85 /  10   0   0  10
Clarksville    63  88  59  85 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     56  81  55  79 /  10  10  10  20
Columbia       62  87  59  85 /  20   0   0  10
Cookeville     61  83  58  80 /  10   0  10  10
Jamestown      59  81  56  77 /  10   0  10  20
Lawrenceburg   62  86  60  84 /  10   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   63  88  60  85 /  10   0   0  10
Waverly        63  86  59  85 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Unger