550
FXUS64 KOHX 151116
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
616 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The remnant low from Francine is now well to our southwest and
will continue to drift south towards the Gulf Coast today. As it
does so, tropical moisture will make its leave of our area as
drier air filters in from the north and east. Still some lingering
showers possible for areas roughly west of I-24, but do think that
these showers will be pretty hit-and-miss. Lightning and thunder
possible with any activity this afternoon, but no severe weather
is expected.

Monday features the start of what looks to be a quieter week with
ridging building over the Plains, allowing for dry northerly flow
overhead. All of Middle TN looks to be dry on Monday, and plenty
of sun will warm temperatures into the mid and upper-80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

NHC is highlighting a disturbance off the coast of South Carolina,
and the main forecast question next week will be if this potential
tropical/subtropical system brings any rain to the area. Taking a
look at ensemble guidance, there`s about 40 percent of model
ensembles that do show rain across the Plateau in the Tuesday,
Wednesday, and Thursday time frame. But any rain that may develop
mid-week along the Plateau looks to be light and non-impactful as
LREF probabilities show a less than 20 percent chance of measuring
at least a tenth of an inch over this time frame. Included some
low PoPs (10-15 percent) across the far eastern Plateau mid-week
to account for this rain possibility, but confidence is low.

With mostly dry weather prevailing this upcoming week,
temperatures will stay in the mid to upper-80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Patchy dense fog mainly in the KCKV area will lift over the next
1-2 hours with VFR conditions returning. A few showers will be
possible once again this afternoon mainly along and west of I-24.
East winds up to 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  65  88  62 /  30  10   0   0
Clarksville    87  63  88  58 /  20  10   0   0
Crossville     83  56  82  53 /  10   0  10  10
Columbia       85  62  87  58 /  30  10   0   0
Cookeville     85  60  83  57 /  20   0  10  10
Jamestown      84  58  81  55 /  10   0  10  10
Lawrenceburg   84  61  86  58 /  30  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   88  63  88  60 /  30  10   0   0
Waverly        84  64  87  58 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Mueller