749
FXUS64 KOHX 141142
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
642 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Most of the Flood Watch has been expired this morning. However,
the Watch has been extended until 7pm CDT for Wayne, Lawrence, and
Giles counties. Our southwest counties have seen an estimated 2
to 3 inches from Francine so far, and with training showers and
storms expected to continue through this evening, flooding may
still be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The remnant low from Francine is currently spinning southwest of
Memphis, and it`s expected to drift into northern MS/AL today.
With the area still being impacted from post-tropical storm
Francine, rain showers are ongoing early this morning across
western Middle TN. And it`s this area that is still the focus for
additional showers and storms again today. Rain should become more
convective in nature by this afternoon as the atmosphere
destabilizes and CAPE values increase to 500-1000 J/kg. But with
little to no shear and helicity, severe weather is not expected.
Heavy downpours at times will be the main concern with any
thunderstorm today with CAMs showing the southwest quadrant being
the favored area once again. For areas east of I-24, showers will
be more isolated and hit-and-miss and do think that the Cumberland
Plateau will stay dry today.

The remnant low continues to move south on Sunday, and scattered
showers and storms will still favor areas west of I-24 with the
Plateau remaining dry. Still no severe weather expected with
just heavy rain at times, again favoring the southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

A much quieter week is in store as what`s left of Francine finally
exits our area. Most of the area looks to be dry on Monday with
only low rain chances (roughly 15 to 30 percent) being maintained
in the forecast. Models and ensembles are trending drier for
Monday and would not be surprised to see these rain chances
continue to dwindle for the start of the work week. By Tuesday, we
really dry out as ridging builds over the Plains, putting Middle
TN under dry, northerly flow. Beautiful weather looks to be on tap
with dry conditions and temperatures warming back into the mid and
upper-80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Widespread rain and MVFR cigs will continue this morning in the
southwest part of the area staying to the west of the terminals.
VFR conditions are expected for the terminals. The widespread
rain will become more scattered by the afternoon and scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible for KCKV and
Nashville terminals. Rain chances will diminish by 04z. Winds
will be easterly up to 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      82  68  88  65 /  80  40  20  10
Clarksville    81  65  86  63 /  70  40  20  10
Crossville     81  60  83  57 /  40  10  10  10
Columbia       78  65  85  62 /  80  50  40  20
Cookeville     82  63  85  61 /  40  10  10  10
Jamestown      83  62  83  59 /  20  10  10   0
Lawrenceburg   77  64  84  62 /  80  50  40  20
Murfreesboro   83  65  88  62 /  70  40  30  10
Waverly        79  65  85  63 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for Giles-Lawrence-Wayne.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Clements
SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Mueller