763
FXUS64 KOHX 231655
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1155 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Radar late this morning shows a weakening line of light rain
showers moving southeastward across northern parts of the
midstate. This activity should continue to weaken over the next
couple of hours as it moves further southeast. However,
additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along
any remnant outflow from this activity, as well as along and ahead
of a cold front currently approaching the Ohio River, based on the
latest HRRR model runs. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE peaking in
the 1500-2000 J/Kg range with fairly steep low level lapse rates
and PWATs rising to around the 2 inch mark. These parameters are
favorable for a few storms to produce wet microbursts with
potential of damaging winds and maybe some small hail. However,
mid level lapse rates will be very weak around 5.5 C/km or less
with deep layer shear also weak at 25 knots, which should help
keep the strong to severe storm threat isolated. SPC continues to
highlight our area in a marginal risk for severe storms today
which seems reasonable. Cloud cover and precip will keep temps
down a degree or two from yesterday`s readings, especially across
our northwest counties, but it will still get quite hot with highs
reaching around 90 on the Plateau and mid to upper 90s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Front will pass through the area tonight with a drier and
slightly cooler airmass filtering in behind the boundary for
Monday, with highs a couple degrees lower than today. However, we
will heat right back up on Tuesday as upper ridging builds back
in aloft, with highs in the 90s anticipated for nearly everyone
once again. A much stronger upper level trough and associated cold
front is shown by guidance to dig southward out of the Great
Lakes on Wednesday into Wednesday night, bringing our best chance
for showers and storms over the next week with high chance to
likely pops. Forecast soundings for Wednesday show weak MLCAPE for
late June between 1000-1500 J/Kg, but also show a bit stronger
deep layer shear and slightly steeper lapse rates than we will see
today, along with considerable dry air aloft and DCAPE over 1000
J/Kg. Therefore, a few strong to severe storms with damaging
microbursts winds and small hail appear possible once again, and
I`d expect SPC to highlight our area in marginal risk on their new
Day 3 outlook tonight.

After the wet Wednesday, we dry out again for Thursday but will
also see much cooler temperatures in the wake of the front pushing
through with highs only in the mid 80s to low 90s. Unfortunately,
this "cooldown" will be shortlived as an H5 ridge strengthens
significantly across the southern Plains into the Southeast with
heights rising to around 597dm. This will cause temps to soar back
into the mid to upper 90s west of the Plateau, and a few
locations could hit the 100 degree mark. 12Z guidance differs next
weekend on timing and how far south a front makes it into our
area, but due to the strength of the upper ridge forecast it will
likely struggle to make much headway into the midstate.
Nevertheless, pops will be on the increase by late weekend with
temperatures potentially "cooling" back down somewhat again.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

High pressure is finally sliding off to the east, and this will
pave the way for a weak surface boundary currently approaching
Middle Tennessee from the northwest to push through the mid state
later today. There are scattered PoPs in the forecast for this
afternoon and early evening, so we`ve included mention of TS/CBs
during the p.m. time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      96  72  95  70 /  40  20   0   0
Clarksville    93  69  93  69 /  40  10   0   0
Crossville     88  66  86  60 /  50  50   0   0
Columbia       95  70  96  68 /  30  20   0   0
Cookeville     90  67  87  64 /  50  50   0   0
Jamestown      88  66  85  62 /  50  50   0   0
Lawrenceburg   94  69  94  67 /  30  30   0   0
Murfreesboro   96  69  95  67 /  40  30   0   0
Waverly        93  69  94  70 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Rose