Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
334 FXUS64 KOHX 212325 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 625 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Another hot and humid summer day across the midstate today with current temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s. Anticipate highs to reach the upper 80s to around 90 on the Plateau this afternoon with mid to upper 90s elsewhere. HRRR has been consistently showing a few popup showers or storms during the afternoon, so I added a very slight chance pop for that potential. Tomorrow looks even hotter as the upper ridge remains in place and 850mb temps heat up a tad, so expect highs to be a degree or two above today`s readings. It`s possible Nashville could squeak up to the 100 degree mark during the afternoon, but right now I`m forecasting it to stay just below. A few areas could also reach our Heat Advisory criteria of 105+ heat index values, but with most areas staying below that I`m not planning on an advisory at this time. Also not anticipating any popups tomorrow due to the strength of the upper ridge, but as always in our summertime regime one or two could occur. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 On Sunday, a weak frontal boundary will sink down from the north, bringing some widely scattered showers and storms by late afternoon and especially Sunday evening/night. Models accordingly cool down highs for Sunday, but with the late day frontal arrival they are likely overdoing things and temps will likely be similar to Saturday. Forecast soundings aren`t impressive with only weak shear and CAPE for late Sunday, but a strong storm or two could occur mainly with gusty winds. Drier airmass moves in behind the front on Monday into Tuesday, but 850mb temps actually warm up into the 21-24C range - so it highs will actually go up across Middle Tennessee with a better likelihood for a few areas to hit the 100 degree mark. Low level moisture begins returning from the west on Tuesday so precip chances will be on the rise Wednesday into Thursday while temperatures decline thanks to clouds/precip. Guidance shows a more substantial cold front moving through the region by late week, with a return to dry conditions and at least somewhat of a "cooldown" into the mid 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will be light and variable. Patchy fog may develop over portions of the Cumberland Plateau, which may impact KSRB and KCSV. But confidence was not high enough to include in the TAF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 74 99 74 98 / 0 10 0 20 Clarksville 72 96 73 94 / 0 0 10 30 Crossville 67 89 68 89 / 0 10 0 20 Columbia 72 96 71 96 / 10 0 0 20 Cookeville 69 91 71 91 / 0 10 0 20 Jamestown 68 90 70 89 / 0 10 0 30 Lawrenceburg 71 95 71 95 / 0 10 0 10 Murfreesboro 72 97 72 97 / 0 10 0 20 Waverly 72 95 73 94 / 0 0 10 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION.....Clements