379
FXUS64 KOHX 230532
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1232 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

It`s still very warm out there right now with the highest temp
sitting at 88 over BNA. Temperatures will only get down into the
mid to upper 70s overnight. For Sunday, models still show a small
disturbance moving through the area during the afternoon and
evening, but shower and thunderstorm chances remain low, between
25-35%. Latest models show we`ll be unstable enough for some
thunderstorms to develop, but lapse rates continue to be on the
low side, thus limiting any widespread severe activity tomorrow.
Nonetheless, any storms that do develop could produce gusty winds
and very heavy rain. Outside of the rain and storm chances,
another above-normal hot day is in store with highs reaching into
the mid to upper 90s for most across the mid state.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Hot and humid is the main weather story today and tomorrow thanks
to an upper level ridge of high pressure overhead. Current
temperatures late this morning are already in the mid 80s on the
Plateau and upper 80s to low 90s elsewhere, and highs should
easily reach around 90 on the Plateau and mid to upper 90s across
the rest of the area this afternoon. Guidance such as the HRRR
continues to show some isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm
popping up this afternoon, and indeed already seeing some tiny
showers on radar as well as some towering cumulus on visible
satellite. Therefore will keep a slight chance pop going, mainly
across our northeast half.

On Sunday into Sunday night, a weak cold front will move across
the area bringing a better albeit still low chance for showers
and storms across the midstate. Despite the increased rain
chances, temps will still be quite hot and near or only slightly
below today`s readings. SPC continues to highlight our cwa in a
marginal risk for severe storms on Sunday into Sunday night.
Forecast soundings do show MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 range
on Sunday afternoon, but lapse rates are very poor in the 5-6C/km
range and shear is quite weak. Therefore not anticipating much in
the way of strong to severe activity, with a couple storms
potentially producing some strong microburst winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Airmass behind the front will dry us out for Monday and Tuesday,
which will actually allow temperatures to heat up more easily
thanks to the upper ridge remaining nearby. Highs should reach the
90s both days areawide, and a few locations could hit the 100
degree mark such as BNA. Thankfully, lower dewpoints should keep
our heat index values just below the 105 degree mark for a Heat
Advisory both days, but it will be close.

Temperatures "cool" down for Wednesday and Thursday as an upper
trough digs southward from the Great Lakes pushing another front
down from the north. This system looks to bring our highest chance
for rain in the next 7 days on Wednesday, with high chance to
likely pops across the midstate. Forecast soundings show slightly
lower CAPE but a bit higher lapse rates and shear on Wednesday, so
a few strong or maybe severe storms could occur and another SPC
marginal risk is possible. After the brief respite from the heat,
a new and stronger upper ridge is forecast to develop across the
southern Plains eastward into the Tennessee Valley by next
weekend. Therefore we will heat right back up into the upper 90s
to near 100 by end of the forecast period, with only slight
chances for some summertime pulse showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

High pressure is finally sliding off to the east, and this will
pave the way for a weak surface boundary approaching Middle
Tennessee from the northwest to push through the mid state on
Sunday. There are scattered PoPs in the forecast for this
afternoon and early evening, and for now we`ll cover this with
PROB30 remarks for TSRA during peak-heating hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      96  73  95  71 /  40  10   0   0
Clarksville    92  69  93  70 /  30  10   0   0
Crossville     88  66  86  62 /  30  30   0   0
Columbia       96  70  96  69 /  30  20   0   0
Cookeville     89  68  87  65 /  30  30   0   0
Jamestown      88  66  86  62 /  30  40   0   0
Lawrenceburg   94  70  94  68 /  30  20   0   0
Murfreesboro   96  71  94  68 /  30  30   0   0
Waverly        92  69  93  70 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Baggett
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Rose