422
FXUS61 KOKX 150013
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
813 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front approaching from the west will move through
tonight and remain nearby as a Bermuda high remains anchored
well offshore. The boundary will lift north by Thursday, with an
attendant cold front following into late week. Behind it, high
pressure will attempt to build in this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Flood Watch remains in effect through midnight for NE NJ, the
lower Hudson Valley, NYC, and SW CT.

Convection appears be more outflow dominant over the past hour
or so with a somewhat faster forward propagation east compared
to earlier this afternoon. Several flash flood warnings have
been issued with locally 4-6 inch rainfall totals in the hardest
hit areas, and additional warnings could be issued, although
less likely as we head through the next hour or two.

Seasonably warm and very muggy conditions will prevail through
tonight, with low temps from the upper 60s well inland to the
mid 70s invof NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AM showers/tstms still possible Tue morning from NYC metro east
with the front still in the vicinity, then a chance for late day
showers/tstms from NYC north/west in the afternoon with a subtle
sfc trough still in the vicinity and a mid level shortwave
trough approaching. This activity should be on the weaker side
with instability much more limited and wind fields aloft weak.

Of more concern will be increasing heat/humidity. High temps on
Tue should reach the upper 80s/lower 90s from NYC north/west,
with mid 80s elsewhere. Combined with dewpoints in the upper
60s/lower 70s this could yield heat index values of 95-99 for
much of NE NJ and also parts of the lower Hudson Valley and the
CT river valley. A short fused heat advisory might be needed for
some or all of these areas.

Low temps Tue night should range once again from the upper 60s
well inland, to the mid 70s in the NYC metro area and western
Long Island.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:

* Increasing likelihood for heat indices to exceed 95F Wednesday
  through Friday across much of the region.

* Unsettled pattern with chances for afternoon showers and
  thunderstorms into late week.

The weakening frontal boundary lingers nearby into midweek as
sprawling high pressure remains anchored well out in the
Atlantic. SW flow helps usher in additional warm, moist air, and
temperatures nudge upwards. While nothing remarkable for mid
July, temperatures Wed through Fri likely top the upper 80s to
lower 90s for most, and with dew pts progged at least into the
upper 60s and lower 70s, heat indices should achieve mid to
upper 90s, with the hottest locales exceeding 100F. Heat
headlines will likely be needed as we move closer.

One caveat may be the unsettled pattern, with showers and
thunderstorms possible each afternoon through late week with
nearby frontal boundaries, though the overall severe risk
appears low. However, deep layer moisture should keep PWATs near
or above 2 inches, and with it, the potential for higher
rainfall rates with any convective activity.

Conditions potentially begin to settle into at least the start
of the weekend behind a cold fropa, as high pressure attempts
to build in from the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak cold front remains over the region through Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms expected to weaken over the next few
hours as they slowly shift east, ending by the Tuesday morning
push. Mainly VFR/MVFR for tonight, but some IFR in
showers/tstms, as well as east of the city terminals. VFR for
Tuesday outside any possible showers/tstms.

Winds variable in/near thunderstorms with gusts up to 30 kt
still possible until approx 01-02z. Light and variable winds
overnight, becoming S-SSW 5-10kt Tuesday.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
TSTM chances may end an hour or two before indicated in TAFs.
MVFR could prevail all night - low confidence in flight
category forecast tonight/early Tuesday morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night: VFR during the afternoon/evening with a chance
of a shower/thunderstorm. MVFR or lower possible, especially
east of NYC metro at night.

Wednesday-Friday: MVFR or lower in any afternoon/evening
showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SW flow increasing to over 15 kt could build seas close to 5 ft
on the outer ocean waters E of Fire Island Inlet Thu night.
Otherwise, afternoon/evening showers/tstms through the period
could produce locally higher winds/seas at times.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood Watch remains in effect until midnight for NE NJ, the
lower Hudson Valley, NYC, and SW CT.

Additional flash flood warnings could be issued this evening.
Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour still being observed early
this evening, mainly from NYC and eastward.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk is low through Tuesday, with a 10 kt or
less onshore flow and weakening S-SE swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for CTZ005-006-009.
NY...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075-176-178.
NJ...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC