658
FXUS61 KOKX 220623
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
223 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the north of the region, slowly retreats back
north as a warm front this weekend. A cold front approaches late
Sunday, moving across Sunday night into Monday, followed by
high pressure on Tuesday. Another frontal system will approach
on Wednesday and move slowly across from Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday. High pressure will return for Thursday night into
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
Region remains on NE edge of southern ridging, with subtle
convectively induced vorts moving through flow. A cold front
over central New England sinks south towards the region this
eve, likely stalling just north of the forecast area late in the
day into night.

Much of the area is now dry, with a cluster of showers/weak
thunderstorms moving into the Lower Hudson Valley. This activity
is expected to continue to weaken as it moves eastward.
Otherwise, very warm and muggy conditions overnight, with lows
in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridge continues to sink south through the weekend, with
deep layer flow aloft backing from W to SW. At the surface, cold
front retreats north tonight and remains fairly stationary
across central and SE New England through the weekend.

Heat continues to build through the weekend, with 850mb temps
rising into the upper teens on Sat and 20-21C on Sun. Gusty SW
flow and deep mixing will have surface temps similarly
increasing each day away from the coast. High in the mid to
upper 90s likely for NE NJ, NW NYC, and surrounding portions of
LoHuD, with widespread upper 80s to lower 90s for remainder of
the area. A strengthening S/SW flow will limit south coastal LI
and SE CT in the lower to mid 80s each day. High temperatures
on Sunday could touch or break daily records across NYC/NJ
metro.

850mb TDs climb slightly Sat into Sun as well, indicating a
slight upward trends in surface Td`s as well, but still likely
some Td mixout in the afternoon during peak heating. This
expands the threat for 95 to 100 heat index into northern New
London/Middlesex and NW LI for the weekend, continuing from
today. Isolated 105 HI possible for NE NJ and immediate
surroundings Sat and Sun, but too low coverage/confidence for
upgrade to excessive heat at this time. T/Td trends will be
monitored thru the weekend for possible upgrade. Blend of
deterministic NBM and HRRR for T and Td seems to be verifying
well.

Focus for tstms Sat aft/eve looks less clear than today as warm
front pushes farther north into northern New England. Isolated
convective initiation possible along sea- breeze and off higher
terrain to the NW (drifting east) in moderate to strong
instability but still weak shear/mid level lapse rate
environment. More widespread convective development possible
along backdoor cold front moving westward across SE New England,
but this appears to stall east of the area, but could clip far
SE CT. For now, have capped pops at high chance for interior,
to slight/low chance for the coast, based on the above. Isolated
wet microburst potential with any convective development along
and north of these boundaries in moderate to strong instability
and weak shear/mid-level lapse rate environment.

A seemingly better chance for organized convection late Sun
into Sun Eve with lead shortwave ahead of digging Great Lakes
shortwave and pre-frontal trough approaching from the west. This
approaching system will strengthen wind fields and deep layer
shear over the region, likely promoting better organizing of
upstream convection and longer lived updrafts. Question is
timing of this convection into our area. Moderate to strong
instability is likely once again across NYC and pts N&W Sun
afternoon, but late day/evening timing of convection would not
maximize potential. Marginal severe threat from SPC looks
reasonable based on mismatch btwn shear/and peak instability
timing, and strong synoptic S/SW flow disrupting any clear focus
outside of elevation.

Low and localized flash flood threat both days with isolate to
scattered convective coverage on Sat, and likely better forward
progression of convection on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points:

* Heat wave comes to an end Sunday night-Monday with a cold frontal
  passage.

* One more hot day expected ahead of another frontal system on
  Wednesday.

* A slow moving frontal system could bring locally heavy rainfall
  from late Wednesday into Thursday.

NBM was generally followed, with some adjustments mainly to to
temperatures and dewpoints per 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF guidance.

The heat wave should come to an end as an upper trough/closed low
and associated cold front approach the area Sunday night into
Monday. A few tstms with gusty winds possible Sunday evening via pre-
frontal deep layer unidirectional shear (mid layer SW-W flow 35-50
kt) and leftover steep lapse rates from daytime heat. Brief heavy
rain could also be possible with any storms.

Front clears the area daytime Mon, with any 90-plus temps shunted
just south into central NJ, and heat index values close to
actual temps.

Tue should be a bit warmer with high pressure and downslope W-NW
flow in control. High temps will range from 85-90 in most places,
with similar heat index values as afternoon dewpoints should be no
higher than the upper 50s/lower 60s. Wed will be a little warmer and
more humid still, with high temps 90-95 from NYC north/west and the
heat index approaching or just surpassing 95 for one day as
afternoon dewpoints increase to the lower/mid 60s.

A slow moving frontal system should bring an end to this shorter
spell of heat, with chances for tstms from late day Wed into Thu.
More on this in the Hydrology section.

Locally heavy rainfall possible with PW approaching 2 inches and
some potential for training cells along the slow moving frontal
boundary. Attm Fri looks dry with temps near or just above
the seasonal avg.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure remains across the Western Atlantic as a front
lingers north of the region.

Mainly VFR. A few weak showers were moving across Long Island
and in the vicinity of the NYC metro terminals at 06Z. Low
confidence in and patchy fog/stratus developing toward morning
for the eastern terminals, and not included in the TAF at this
time.

Winds will be light S/SW to light and variable overnight, and
become S by late Saturday morning, generally under 10kt. Any
gusts will be late in the afternoon, and may be more
occasional.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible again this
afternoon/evening. Thunders will likely be isolated and
confidence remains too low to include in the TAF anywhere
except KSWF. PROB30 for SHRA was included elsewhere.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low to moderate confidence in the timing of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, and may be later than current
forecast.


OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Late Saturday Night: Mainly VFR. MVFR to IFR possible east of
the New York City metro terminals.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Showers and thunderstorms becoming likely
late day into the night. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in
the morning.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower at times with showers and thunderstorms
possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through at least Saturday.
Marginal SCA conditions possible for ocean waters leading to NY
Harbor and surrounding near-shore waters with afternoon coastal
jet development and seas of 3 to 5ft.

Higher confidence in SCA for winds and seas on the ocean water
Saturday Night into Sunday as S-SW flow strengthens. Gusts
up to 30kt possible Sunday aft. Nearshore non- ocean waters may
see advisory gusts conditions as well Sunday aft.

SW flow 20-25 kt on the ocean with a few higher gusts to 30 kt
Sunday night will maintain significant wave heights of 6-8 ft
during that time frame, lowering only to 5-7 ft daytime Mon as
SW flow 15 kt continues. These seas should then gradually
diminish below 5 ft Mon night as a cold front passes and winds
shift offshore.

Conditions fall below small craft late Monday night into
Tuesday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Isolated thunderstorms may produce brief heavy downpours that
could lead to brief nuisance flooding, but the threat for more
significant flooding this evening has ended.

Low and localized flash flood threat on Saturday with any slow
moving isolated to scattered tstm activity across interior.

Low flash flood threat late Sunday into Sunday Night with
possible scattered convection development along/ahead of pre-
frontal trough/cold frontal passage.

Another chance for locally heavy rain may come from late Wed into
Thu with another frontal system. PW again increases close to 2
inches and deep layer SW flow could favor training of cells, but
this remains inherently uncertain 5-6 days out.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk should continue at the ocean
beaches on Saturday via combo of 3-ft SW wind waves and 2-ft
long period SE swell. A high risk is likely for Sunday as S-SW
flow increases to 20- 25 kt and 5-ft S wind waves increase to
6-8 ft in the afternoon.

Will only mention the high risk in the SRF and HWO and hold off
on rip current statement issuance, to avoid any confusion with
the moderate risk for Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are current record high temperatures thru Sunday...

Saturday, June 22:

NYC: 98(1988)
LGA: 99(1988)
JFK: 94(2012)
EWR: 101(1988)
ISP: 94(2012)
BDR: 93(1949)

Sunday, June 23

NYC: 96(1888)
LGA: 95(1965)
JFK: 94(2010)
EWR: 97(1965)
ISP: 91(1999)
BDR: 91(2010)

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ005>009.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ067>075-176-178.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ078-
     177.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/NV
NEAR TERM...DR/JT/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/NV
HYDROLOGY...BG/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...