644
FXUS61 KOKX 201000
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
600 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure remains south and east of the Long Island through
through Saturday before slowly pushing farther offshore Sunday
into early next week. At the same time, high pressure noses in
from the northeast into Monday and remains in control through
Tuesday. A frontal system approaches mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast on track this morning.

A rather persistent weather pattern will continue into the
weekend across the northeast. Low pressure will linger south and
east of Long Island with high pressure slowly ridging southwest
out of southeast Canada.

Most of the region will remain dry through tonight. The east end
of Long Island and southeast Connecticut could see a few
showers on the northwest side of the offshore low, but so
far any activity has had a hard time making it this far west.
The chance could be slightly higher tonight as some upper level
energy pivots west around the associated upper low. The thickest
cloud cover should also remain across eastern Long Island and
southeast Connecticut with partly cloudy conditions further west
towards the NYC metro, NE NJ, and Lower Hudson Valley.

Highs today across much of the area will be in the middle to
upper 70s except out east where highs will be in the upper 60s
and low 70s. A few 80 degree readings are not out of the
question in the NYC metro. Some slightly cooler air begins to
advect in from the north tonight with lows falling into the
middle to upper 50s for most spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will continue to spin south and east of Long Island
on Saturday. The associated upper low remains nearly stationary
as well, but should begin to open up in the afternoon/evening
as it interacts with upper level energy from the Great Lakes.
This interaction should ultimately begin the process of moving
the upper trough axis further offshore Saturday night and
Sunday. As a result, the surface low will slowly move further
offshore. High pressure will continue ridging down from
southeast Canada on Saturday, but will become more dominant on
Sunday.

The chance for a few showers will remain across the east end of
Long Island and southeast Connecticut on Saturday. Its
beginning to look like the bulk of any showers will remain
closer to Cape Cod, but did not want to completely remove PoPs
yet as the modeling continues to struggle resolving if this
precip can make it as far west as New London and the Twin Forks.
Otherwise, it will remain dry for the rest of the area with
partly to mostly cloudy skies. The interaction with the upper
level energy from the Great Lakes will likely increase cloud
cover a bit areawide in the afternoon and evening. Highs should
be a bit cooler on Saturday with highs in the upper 60s and low
70s east and middle to upper 70s west, especially NYC metro and
NE NJ.

Conditions will improve further Saturday night into Sunday with
the high pressure building further south and the offshore low
moving further away from the coast. Dry conditions are expected
with highs near seasonable levels in the lower to middle 70s.
With cooler and drier air over the region, temperatures Sunday
night look to fall into the upper 40s inland and lower to middle
50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No major changes made to the long term Monday through Thursday
with the NBM used for the forecast.

*Key Points*

*Dry conditions Monday and Tuesday transition to potential of
showers mid to late week with an approaching frontal system.

*Temperatures will likely end up slightly below normal.

Upper ridge axis slides over the area on Monday with surface
high pressure over New England. The ridge flattens by Tuesday
with guidance signaling a shortwave passing well to our north
and west on Tuesday. Dry conditions are generally expected
Monday and Tuesday. There will likely be mostly cloudy
conditions late Monday and continuing into Tuesday with SW flow
aloft. There may also be a passing shower well inland late
Tuesday and Tuesday night. The chance for showers slowly spreads
across the rest of the area Wednesday into Thursday as a larger
upper trough and associated frontal system slowly approach from
the west. The global deterministic and ensemble guidance are in
disagreement on the overall evolution of trough as it nears the
coast during this time frame. See no reason to sway from the
model consensus on PoPs overall, but capped them off at chance
for now given this is a Day 6- 7 forecast.

Highs will mainly be in the the upper 60s and low 70s this week
with nighttime temperatures in the 50s. Some moderation is
possible late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure remains offshore, east of Long Island through the TAF
period.

Mainly VFR but some MVFR stratus has developed and will linger into
the morning, including KISP and some NYC terminals. MVFR stratus is
possible for other terminals as well going into this morning. KGON
will have another period of MVFR tonight but could be possible at
other terminals as well.

Winds will be mainly NE and around 5-10 kt. NE winds pick up again
for all terminals with gusts resuming by 12 to 15z Friday for most
terminals with sustained winds 10-15 kt, and g17-25 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Confidence remains high with wind direction into Friday. Amendments
may be needed for KEWR and KTEB today where wind gusts may be
more occasional.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Late Tonight: Mainly VFR, pockets of MVFR possible east.

Saturday: VFR. MVFR east of the NYC terminals in possible showers,
but low chance of occurring. NE gusts around 15-25 kt possible,
highest gusts east.

Sunday: VFR. NE gusts 15-25 kt possible, highest gusts east.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with pockets of MVFR possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisories have been extended on the ocean waters
through Saturday night, and will likely need to be expanded
into early next week as a persistent N-NE flow keep seas
elevated above 5 ft. SCA winds will be a little more challenging
to reach, but are more likely around Moriches Inlet on east
with some gusts to 25 kt. Winds on the non-ocean should largely
remain below SCA levels into early next week. However, there is
a window this afternoon and evening on the Long Island Sound
east of the mouth of the CT River and E LI Bays for winds around
25 kt. Have therefore issued an SCA this afternoon and evening.
Winds on the ocean should start to weaken Saturday night into
Sunday and remain below SCA levels into early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues through the middle of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flooding expected to continue through this weekend and
early next week. Surge increases today into tonight and then
surge does not change as much from tonight into Saturday. While
astronomical levels will be on a downward trend, the surge will
compensate for the total water level.

This surge comes from the low remaining offshore, with its
persistent easterly winds and fetch. This is establishing an
easterly swell with building seas. This pattern remains this
weekend and into early next week but low pressure will make its
way farther out into the Atlantic for the end of this weekend
into early next week.

Forecast surge varies from near 1 to near 2 ft. 2 ft is the max
surge forecast for locations within South Shore Bays and along
parts of the Western LI Sound shoreline. Three main areas
expected to get most coastal impacts, the South Shore Bays of
Long Island, parts of the Lower NY Harbor, parts of Western Long
Island shorelines.

Coastal flood hazards have been updated through Saturday. Minor
to moderate coastal flooding today with widespread minor
coastal flooding tonight. Saturday has the potential for more
moderate coastal flooding. Coastal flood warnings are up for
portions of the coast expected to get moderate coastal flooding
today. Coastal flood advisories are up for coastlines expected
to have minor coastal flooding today and tonight. For Saturday,
the coastal locations with potential for moderate coastal
flooding have a coastal flood watch.

In addition, due to the building easterly swell there is a high
rip current risk through Saturday, which will likely need to be
extended into Sunday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this
     afternoon for CTZ009-010.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for CTZ009-010.
     Coastal Flood Watch Saturday afternoon for CTZ009-010.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 3 PM EDT
     this afternoon for CTZ011-012.
NY...Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this
     afternoon for NYZ071-073-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Watch Saturday afternoon for NYZ071-073-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 3 PM EDT
     this afternoon for NYZ078>081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT this
     afternoon for NYZ072-074-075.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ072-074-075-080-081-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for NYZ074-075-080-178-179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 4 PM EDT this
     afternoon for NYZ176.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ178-
     179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT this
     afternoon for NJZ006-106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Saturday for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 11 PM EDT this evening
     for ANZ332-340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DS
HYDROLOGY...DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JM/DS