438
FXUS61 KOKX 241932
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
332 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens over the region through Wednesday as a frontal
system approaches from the west. Its associated warm front lifts
though the region Wednesday night into early Thursday, followed by a
cold front Thursday night. High pressure builds to the north Friday
and then remains into the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Mostly cloudy for tonight with a low level easterly flow combined
with increasing moisture in the mid levels ahead of an approaching
weak system to our west. It will be dry for the most part, but a few
showers may sneak into the western zones late tonight. NBM was used
for low temperatures, but adjusted upward a little over parts of
Long Island with the anticipation of a mostly cloudy sky and
persistent easterly flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cloudy through the period with rain chances generally trending
upward slowly across the area. The better chances will be during
Wednesday night with a warm front passing through, and the
probabilities will be highest north and west of the city. Models
showing some elevated instability, but will leave out the
mention of thunder as shortwave lift doesn`t look particularly
strong, and mid level lapse rates will be unfavorable with a
longwave ridge aloft still nearby. Cloudy otherwise through the
short term forecast. Blended NBM 25th and 50th percentiles for
high temps due to the cloud cover. Highs only in the 60s for
most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A northern stream upper trough closes off and moves across the upper
midwest and southern Canada into northern New England Thursday into
Thursday night. An associated frontal system, first a warm front
Thursday morning, then a cold front late Thursday into Thursday
night, moves across the region and brings chances of precipitation.
The best chances will be across the northern tier. There will be
some surface based CAPE and instability, along with some shear, for
a chance of thunderstorms late Thursday into Thursday night.
Precipitation may linger just to the south and west of the region
Friday into Saturday evening until an upper ridge builds eastward.

The high amplitude ridge builds between the northern offshore closed
low and another closed low that remains nearly stationary over the
lower Mississippi Valley Saturday and Sunday. This ridge and
associated high pressure to the north will bring a period of dry
weather Saturday night through Monday. The upper ridge weakens early
next week and the southern closed low begins to move northward and
may bring chances of precipitation back into the region for Tuesday.

Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal Thursday and Friday,
and then near seasonal normals Saturday into the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through today. A frontal system
approaches tomorrow.

Mainly VFR expected today though low stratus could lead to temporary
MVFR conditions occasionally. While things have scattered out for
now from this morning, its still worth keeping an eye on. More
widespread MVFR ceilings are expected to move into most terminals
after 00-03Z tonight. MVFR will hold all tomorrow. There is a
possibility for IFR starting tomorrow morning at city terminals and
terminals north and west, but too low confidence to include in the
TAFs.

Spotty/sparse coverage of SHRA may approach the terminals from the
west on Wednesday, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs
at this time. It may be too dry for SHRA to develop or become
impactful.

E-NE winds around 10 kt today. An occasional gust of 15 to 20 kt is
possible into the early evening hours. Winds will drop below 10 kt
tonight, then increase tomorrow 10-15 kts with gusts peaking near 20
kts.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Unscheduled amendments possible for changing flight categories due
to marginal MVFR cigs.

OUTLOOK FOR 21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower cond
throughout, but mainly after midnight at KISP/KGON. Slight chance of
a tstm in the evening from the NYC metros north/west.

Thursday: Chance of mainly morning showers/MVFR cond, otherwise VFR.

Friday - Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Long period easterly swells from a slowly departing offshore low
will to continue to produce advisory level seas on the ocean
through Wednesday night with waves possibly remaining near 5
feet through Thursday evening as swells diminish. SCA has been
extended through Wednesday night for the time being. For Thursday
night, ocean seas likely fall below 5 feet as the swells
continue to diminish and as a northerly flow develops behind a
frontal system. Sub advisory levels will then continue through
the weekend. For the non ocean waters winds and seas will remain
below advisory levels Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels continue to slowly recede as high tides lower. However,
easterly swells have made it difficult for back bay locations of
western LI to drain. On-going brief minor coastal flooding at the
most vulnerable locations in the south shore back bays this
afternoon, will be ending by early this evening.
Additional coastal flooding is not anticipated beyond this high time
cycle.

The high risk of rip currents continues through Wednesday evening at
all the ocean beaches, and through Thursday evening at the Suffolk
County beaches. There is a moderate risk Thursday at the New York
City and Nassau ocean beaches. Offshore low pressure southeast of
Long Island was still producing long period E/SE swells across the
waters. These swells will be lowering late Thursday and continue
lowering Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday afternoon for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BR/MW
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...