288
FXUS66 KOTX 161725
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1025 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Today will be the warmest day of the week. Tuesday and Wednesday
will be cooler with periods of rain over north Idaho and the
eastern third of Washington. Gusty north winds down the Okanogan
valley today will become breezy from the west on Tuesday and be
more widespread across parts of central and eastern Washington.
Drier weather will be found heading into the end of the work week,
with precipitaiton chances returning for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday: Today the low will begin to move inland over
central California, another chance of shower activity over the Camas
Prairie and LC Valley. Any rain will be light. Winds will increase
early this morning in the Okanogan Valley and Waterville Plateau
with gusts up to 35 mph, continuing through the early afternoon. As
the low shifts east, the winds will gradually decrease this
afternoon. Temperatures will warm back to normal today.

Showers increase along the WA/ID border early Tuesday as the wrap
around moisture sets up behind the low. Another low is tracking down
along the coast, but most of the moisture will remain on the west
side of the Cascades. The heaviest moisture will remain to our south
unlike the system last week, with rain totals less than a quarter
inch in the heaviest showers. Most areas will receive a tenth or
less. Temperatures will cool again on Tuesday in most areas, with the
exception of the Okanogan Valley seeing temperatures similar to
today. /KM

Wednesday to Sunday: Low pressure centered south of the area
gradually shifts southeast of the region, while weak high pressure
builds in before another system approaches toward next weekend.
However models continues to disagree over the precise nature of
the system, which some keeping the brunt of it north and others
bringing it more directly in. First Wednesday shower chances
continue near the Cascade crest and around the ID Panhandle,
before chance wane heading into Wednesday night. Thursday and
Friday are forecast to be drier, save for lingering shower chances
near the Cascade crest in the onshore flow and as some moisture
slips over the top of the weak ridge. Saturday and Sunday the
chance of precipitation expands across the region again with the
potential system slipping near or into the region. Confidence will
increase as we get closer and models come into better agreement.
Some guidance has higher overall potential for precipitation
around the mountain zones, with the chances of wetting rains
ranging from 20-70%, depending on the model. However about 60% of
the models lean toward the 20-30% chance of those wetting rains,
meaning right now confidence leans toward a lower risk for wetting
rains.

Some low-grade breezy conditions are expected Wednesday and
again toward the weekend with gusts near 10-20 mph. Temperatures
will near the slightly above normal through Friday, then trend
slightly below normal toward the weekend. Overnight lows will be
in the 40s and low 50s, with some 30s in the sheltered valleys.
We could see some patchy frost in some of those sheltered valleys
over northeast WA and the ID Panhandle, but it is expected to very
localized. Patchy fog is also possible in some of the sheltered
valleys and near bodies of water during the late night/early
morning hours from Thursday to Saturday. /Solveig

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Mid and high clouds will
persist over SE WA and Central Idaho. There is a 20% chance of
showers early this afternoon for Lewiston. Otherwise dry
conditions are expected until near or just after the end of the
TAF period.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions. Low confidence in shower
activity near KLWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  50  72  48  74  49 /  10  20  20  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  77  50  69  49  69  48 /  10  20  30  20  10  10
Pullman        70  48  64  44  67  44 /  20  40  50  20  10   0
Lewiston       77  58  71  54  74  54 /  20  40  50  20  10  10
Colville       79  38  76  38  76  38 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      75  47  69  46  67  44 /  10  10  40  30  20  10
Kellogg        74  52  65  50  65  49 /  20  30  70  40  40  10
Moses Lake     82  48  78  48  78  47 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      81  53  76  55  78  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           82  50  81  52  80  50 /   0   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$