727
FXUS66 KOTX 250923
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 AM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions expected through today. A cold front
arrives Wednesday with wind and storms that lasts into Thursday.
Then the cycle repeats. More mild and drier weather is likely for
Friday followed by heat Saturday and then more wind and storms for
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night: Ridging will continue today, with
dry and warm conditions expected across the region. Winds will
become more relaxed today as the pressure gradient begins to
loosen. High temperatures today will be slightly warmer than
yesterday, with highs in the 80s and 90s.

Wednesday brings a change in the weather as a low pressure moves
in off the coast. Moisture will arrive as the pressure gradient
tightens yet again, bringing a return gusty winds across the
Columbia Basin and Palouse region. Showers and thunderstorms will
also arrive across the Cascades and Northern Mountains, extending
as far south as the Spokane region. Lightning and gusty winds
will be the main threat with these storms. Temperatures will be a
couple degrees cooler, mainly in the Okanogan Valley area as the
front approaches that area first. /KM

Thursday through Monday: Upper level area of low pressure keeps a
cool conditionally unstable airmass of sorts over a good portion of
Eastern Washington and North Idaho along with hints that some
shortwave rotating along the edges or nested closer to the center of
the low may be effective triggers allows for a mention of showers
and thunderstorms Thursday. Thursday also looks to likely be the
wettest day of the seven day forecast as well with QPF approaching
half inch over some of the northern mountain locations. Shortwave
ridging moves in for Friday however it is late enough and with less
intensity thus pops for showers and thunderstorms are more limited
towards mountain zones. Indeed the shortwave ridging influence is
short lived with the axis moving to the east and the resulting
southwest flow increases moisture and potential for disturbances to
run up from the south ahead of another negatively tilted trof
offshore that moves inland Sunday/Monday. As far as temperature and
wind trends go the cold trof overhead is likely to make Thursday
afternoon and Friday morning the coolest temps of the seven day
forecast and may allow for breezy/gusty conditions in addition to
the earlier mentioned convection. The warm southwest flow following
the exit of shortwave ridging will likely allow warming trend to
peak Saturday followed by subtle cooldown with the more trofy
solution for Sunday and Monday. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at TAF sites, with transient
high clouds and a few flat cumulus closer to the mountains in the
afternoon. Winds mostly light and terrain driven, with a possible
exception near the Cascade gaps which may bring brief higher
winds in the late afternoon and evening hours, but no more than
15 kts expected.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period.
-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        87  57  86  55  71  50 /   0   0  20  20  30   0
Coeur d`Alene  86  56  85  54  68  50 /   0   0  20  20  40  10
Pullman        85  57  84  52  68  47 /   0   0  20  20  20   0
Lewiston       95  65  95  62  79  56 /   0   0  10  20  20   0
Colville       85  48  82  46  68  42 /   0   0  40  40  80  10
Sandpoint      83  53  82  52  64  47 /   0   0  20  30  70  30
Kellogg        83  61  83  56  63  51 /   0   0  20  30  50  20
Moses Lake     92  58  88  54  77  50 /   0   0  30  10  10   0
Wenatchee      90  65  84  58  73  54 /   0   0  30  20  10   0
Omak           91  58  85  55  77  52 /   0   0  40  30  20   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$