567
FXUS66 KOTX 202249
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
349 PM PDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend is expected through the week, with high
temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s on Saturday. A dry cold
front on Sunday will create elevated fire weather concerns with
widespread breezy winds across the region. This will likely be
followed by temperatures cooling back down towards normal values
by Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday Night: Afternoon cumulus has popped up
across the mountains. There is some very weak instability across
the Cascades where we could see an isolated strike through sunset.
A second area to watch is the Blue Mountains towards the central
ID Panhandle. This appears to be a bit more elevated and at best
we may see a sprinkle. Otherwise expect skies to clear overnight.
The trough will move out the area Friday with a ridge building in
through the afternoon. Mostly clear skies, light winds and highs
in the 80s to around 90 is forecast for Friday. Saturday is much
the same as Friday, with a bit more cloud cover and temperatures 2
to 4 degrees warmer as 850mb temps warm several degrees. Temps in
the upper 80s to mid 90s will create a moderate heatrisk, which
affects those sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling
or adequate hydration. /Nisbet

Sunday...Model agreement remains high the ridge axis will
migrate well east of eastern WA/north ID with an offshore trough
heading onto the west coast. This will begin a significant cooling
trend with high temperatures dropping anywhere from 5 to 12F
which is still a little warmer than normal, however the bigger
news will be the introduction of winds into the equation. The 850
mb winds arent terribly strong (20-25 kts) which will equate to
surface wind gusts of 25-35mph with locally higher gusts possible
on the Waterville Plateau and near Pomeroy. The winds will combine
with relative humidity values of less than 20% over much of
central and eastern WA and this will result in an enhanced fire
concerns especially for areas with cured fuels which includes much
of the Columbia Basin, Waterville Plateau, southern portions of
the Okanogan Valley, and the lower Wenatchee Valley. The winds
will also bring a gradual increase of moisture for locations near
the Cascade Crest due to a deepening marine layer.

Monday through Thursday...Model agreement begins to falter just a
bit during this period as some of the models move the upper level
trough inland while others keep it offshore. By Tuesday about 60
percent of the ensemble runs bring the trough onto the western
Washington coast with the remaining 40 percent keeping it farther
west. The implication of this would largely consist of temperature
differences. The onshore trough runs place highs in the mid 70s to
mid 80s while the offshore runs place highs in the 80s to lower
90s. Meanwhile any chance of precipitation will be restricted to
locations near the Canadian border on Wednesday afternoon/evening.
By Thursday there is better agreement that the trough will finally
move ashore with a much better chance of showers across most of
the Inland NW. There will also be a decent chance of thunderstorms
near the Canadian border and over the Camas Prairie. Temperatures
should cool into the 70s to lower 80s. This cooling would also
likely be accompanied by gusty winds. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS:
Small areas of showers exists over the north Cascades near the
Canadian border and in southern Shoshone county of Idaho. An
isolated strike is possible through sunset, mainly for the
Cascades area. Skies will clear overnight with mostly sunny skies
and light winds Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions through 00z Saturday.
-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  85  56  88  59  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  82  53  85  55  79 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        50  81  54  87  58  79 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       59  91  60  95  64  90 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       44  83  49  86  50  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      48  80  50  82  53  79 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        54  79  57  83  60  76 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     53  91  58  94  58  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      61  90  65  92  60  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           54  89  59  92  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$