Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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750 FXUS66 KOTX 092106 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 206 PM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak system will pass today with showers and maybe a few thunderstorms. Limited shower chances will be found again Tuesday and toward the weekend, especially around the mountains. Expect breezy to gusty winds much of the week, but especially Tuesday and again toward Friday. Above normal temperatures will continue though much of the week, with cooler temperatures by late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Rest of today and tonight: Precipitable water between 140-180 percent of normal feeding into the weather disturbance moving through for the rest of today and into tonight has enough instability and forcing with the evolution to continue mention of thunderstorms, in addition to surface based convection for the rest of today potential remains for some overnight as dynamics associated with the disturbance passage allows for the elevated nocturnal forced variety. 0-6km average winds suggest continued general storm motion from southwest to northeast at around 15 to 25 mph. /Pelatti Monday to Sunday: the Inland NW will be in a progressive pattern, with passing shower chances and occasionally breezy conditions with temperatures vacillating between near normal and above values. A weak ridge builds in Monday, with one weak wave exiting through north Idaho. That will bring limited shower chances there, largely near and north of Sandpoint. Otherwise expect some low- end breezy conditions with gusts of 15-25 mph, highest toward the Waterville Plateau. The next wave moves in on a 100kt+ jet Tuesday, bringing the chance for showers over the Cascade crest and northern mountains largely in the afternoon. Limited shower chances or sprinkles will also skim over the northern basin through Spokane/C`dA area in the afternoon. Winds will be stronger Tuesday afternoon with that shortwave and jet nosing over the region. Gusts of 20-40 mph, locally to 45 mph, are forecast. The stronger of those are forecast for the lee of the Cascades to the Waterville Plateau into the Upper Columbia Basin. This may have impacts on any new or existing wildfires, although RH values are not expected to remain a bit above critical thresholds. Wednesday and Thursday the area dries out. Winds will remain breezy Wednesday then are a bit lighter Thursday. Then between Friday and Sunday another system moves into the region, with another period of breezy conditions especially late Friday into Saturday. Shower chances return to the mountains as well. Some models bring broader shower chances but confidence leans toward mostly mountain showers. Temperatures will be above normal through Tuesday, then drop below normal Wednesday before rebounding into Thursday before cooling down into next weekend. /Solveig && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: An incoming weather system will increase clouds overhead as they invade from the west and south. This will bring a 20 to 30 percent chance for showers to the region for the day from 18Z today until 09Z Monday with the 00-09Z Monday convection threat due to dynamics continuing on any convection as the elevated/forced type rather than surface based as most of the 18Z-0Z convection is expected to be. Main concern with thunderstorms will be gusty outflow winds with gusts of 25-35 kts, lightning, brief downpours, and small hail. The probabilities for thunderstorms to move over a TAF site are low (less than 25% probability) but do have mention of mention of showers, which carries higher confidence. Some MVFR fog and stratus may form Monday morning in response to today/tonight`s expected rainfall. /Pelatti FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence remains high for VFR conditions through Sunday afternoon, except for localized restrictions under any thunderstorms that develop. Lower confidence for the MVFR fog and stratus that may form Monday morning. /Pelatti ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 54 81 56 82 47 75 / 20 0 0 20 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 54 77 53 79 46 73 / 20 0 0 20 0 0 Pullman 52 75 53 78 46 71 / 20 0 0 10 0 0 Lewiston 60 85 58 89 54 82 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 48 81 49 80 41 77 / 30 0 0 20 0 0 Sandpoint 52 75 51 76 45 71 / 30 10 0 20 0 0 Kellogg 56 74 56 75 49 69 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 55 88 55 86 47 81 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 58 85 59 79 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 54 88 54 85 47 81 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$