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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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320 FXUS66 KOTX 301145 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 445 AM PDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Winds will be breezy Sunday afternoon with a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms for northeast Washington and north Idaho. Mountain showers and seasonal temperatures continue through early next week, followed by drier and much warmer weather by the end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Today and tomorrow: Elevated showers have brought some rains to the Inland Northwest tonight, but a dry low level atmosphere has limited accumulations largely below 0.10". The best chances for additional rainfall through this morning are southeast Washington, the Idaho Panhandle, and the Cascades. Watching the potential for thunderstorms later today, particularly north and east of Spokane. Thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rain, frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty outflow winds. Some guidance indicates the potential for an inch of rain where thunderstorms may train in northern Pend Oreille County and northern Bonner/Boundary County. This area can handle rains better than most other places in the Inland Northwest, so flash flooding potential is fairly low. Creeks and small streams may have flashy responses with this amount of rain We`ll also have to monitor the Kootenai Complex burn scar from 2022 despite being a low risk burn scar. Temperatures today will be in the 70s and 80s. Thunderstorm potential returns Monday as we remain in an conditionally unstable airmass. Northeastern Washington and the northern Panhandle again have the best shot at additional thunderstorm activity Monday. Expecting very little changes in temperatures tomorrow. /Butler Tuesday through Saturday: Breezy winds are expected Tuesday and Tuesday evening, with gusts up to 30 mph across the Waterville Plateau and areas near Wenatchee. Lingering chances for showers and thunderstorms will also be possible over far northeastern WA and the the northern ID Panhandle Tuesday and Wednesday with near normal daytime temperatures persisting. A warming and drying trend is then anticipated for Thursday through the end of the week under strengthening high pressure. Afternoon highs for Friday and Saturday are forecast to run about 10 degrees above normal. /KD && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: The heavier shower activity is east of all of the TAF sites. There will be another resurgence in showers and thunderstorm chances this afternoon. The thunderstorms have the highest risk north and east of the TAF sites, but there will still be some risk over GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS. Winds will also be gusty in the afternoon, gusting near 15-25 mph. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions at our airport through the period, with low confidence in MVFR conditions in heavier showers. If there is MVFR conditions the risk looks higher near GEG/SFF/COE. General aviation pilots will need to monitor radar for showers and thunderstorms Sunday. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 81 53 80 55 81 53 / 30 0 10 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 77 53 77 53 78 52 / 50 10 20 0 0 0 Pullman 77 52 75 51 77 50 / 30 0 10 0 0 0 Lewiston 87 61 86 59 88 58 / 40 10 0 0 0 0 Colville 75 45 78 45 80 47 / 70 30 30 0 10 0 Sandpoint 72 50 73 50 76 49 / 70 30 50 10 10 10 Kellogg 72 55 73 55 74 54 / 70 20 20 10 10 0 Moses Lake 87 55 86 55 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 82 60 82 57 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 84 54 85 54 88 55 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$