Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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867 FXUS66 KOTX 251808 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1108 AM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry conditions expected through today. A cold front arrives Wednesday with wind and storms that lasts into Thursday. Then the cycle repeats. More mild and drier weather is likely for Friday followed by heat Saturday and then more wind and storms for Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Wednesday night: Ridging will continue today, with dry and warm conditions expected across the region. Winds will become more relaxed today as the pressure gradient begins to relax. High temperatures today will be slightly warmer than yesterday, with highs in the 80s and 90s. Wednesday brings a change in the weather as a low pressure moves in off the coast. Moisture will arrive as the pressure gradient tightens yet again, bringing a return gusty winds across the Columbia Basin and Palouse region. Showers and thunderstorms will also arrive across the Cascades and Northern Mountains, extending as far south as the Spokane region. Lightning, and gusty winds will be the main threat with these storms. Temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler, mainly in the Okanogan Valley area as the front approaches that area first. /KM Thursday through Monday: Upper level area of low pressure keeps a cool conditionally unstable airmass of sorts over a good portion of Eastern Washington and North Idaho along with hints that some shortwave rotating along the edges or nested closer to the center of the low may be effective triggers allows for a mention of showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Thursday also looks to likely be the wettest day of the seven day forecast as well with QPF approaching half inch over some of the northern mountain locations. Shortwave ridging moves in for Friday however it is late enough and with less intensity thus pops for showers and thunderstorms are more limited towards mountain zones. Indeed the shortwave ridging influence is short lived with the axis moving to the east and the resulting southwest flow increases moisture and potential for disturbances to run up from the south ahead of another negatively tilted trof offshore that moves inland Sunday/Monday. As far as temperature and wind trends go the cold trof overhead is likely to make Thursday afternoon and Friday morning the coolest temps of the seven day forecast and may allow for breezy/gusty conditions in addition to the earlier mentioned convection. The warm southwest flow following the exit of shortwave ridging will likely allow warming trend to peak Saturday followed by subtle cooldown with the more trofy solution for Sunday and Monday. /Pelatti && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at TAF sites, with transient high clouds and a few flat cumulus closer to the mountains in the afternoon. Winds mostly light and terrain driven, with a possible exception near the Cascade gaps which may bring brief higher winds in the late afternoon and evening hours, but no more than 15 kts expected. Increasing high to mid clouds toward end of TAF period as next system begins to breach the Cascades crest. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 87 57 86 55 71 50 / 0 0 20 20 30 0 Coeur d`Alene 86 56 85 54 68 50 / 0 0 20 20 40 10 Pullman 85 57 84 52 68 47 / 0 0 20 20 20 0 Lewiston 95 65 95 62 79 56 / 0 0 10 20 20 0 Colville 85 48 82 46 68 42 / 0 0 40 40 80 10 Sandpoint 83 53 82 52 64 47 / 0 0 20 30 70 30 Kellogg 83 61 83 56 63 51 / 0 0 20 30 50 20 Moses Lake 92 58 88 54 77 50 / 0 0 30 10 10 0 Wenatchee 90 65 84 58 73 54 / 0 0 30 20 10 0 Omak 91 58 85 55 77 52 / 0 0 40 30 20 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$