426
FNUS76 KOTX 251309
FWSOTX

Spot Forecast for King Beaver Natural Fuels (Pony Peak)...USFS
National Weather Service Spokane WA
609 AM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 PDT on September 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 11 PM PDT
THIS EVENING...

...NOTE this forecast was trended off the Pony Peak Kestral Drop
observations...

.DISCUSSION...
Very warm and dry conditions are expected over the proposed spot
location today before a strong cold front arrives late in the
afternoon or early this evening. The front will deliver increasing
southwest winds, good ventilation and a very good chance of showers
and thunderstorms especially after 1800. Wetting rains are likely
overnight (80 percent chance or greater) with precipitation amounts
ranging from 0.25-0.45 inches. Conditions behind the cold front
will feature much weaker winds and significantly cooler temperatures.
No significant precipitation is forecast through the end of the week
into the weekend.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly to Mostly sunny in the morning then
                    becoming mainly cloudy in the afternoon. A 25
                    percent chance of showers or an isolated
                    thunderstorm after 1600.
CWR.................Less than 5 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1600 then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 4 to 8 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 7 to 11 mph with gusts to around 18
                    mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL increasing to 6500 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 22 mph.
Haines Index........3 Very Low.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers with a slight
                    chance of thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................80 percent.
LAL.................2 in the evening then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 13 mph with gusts to around
                    25 to 30 mph over exposed ridges and southwest
                    aspects. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL increasing to 2000 ft AGL
                    overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 21 mph.
Haines Index........4 Low.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    in the morning.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL increasing to 4500 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 Low.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the lower 60s. Southwest
winds around 6 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the upper 60s. Light
winds.
.SUNDAY...
Cooler. Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper
50s. Light winds.

$$
Forecaster...FX
Requested by...Patrick Warker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2422936.1/OTX
.DELDT 09/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL patrick.warker@usda.gov,ryan.nipp@usda.gov,luke.smith2@usda.gov,nws.spokane@noaa.gov.