Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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667 FXUS64 KOUN 170402 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1102 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Removed POPs earlier this evening as the convection over the High Plains dissipated well west of the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Remnant MCV leftover from this morning`s convection continues to drift slowly eastward across central OK, but is becoming less defined and as of yet has not led to additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. We will continue to monitor this potential through peak heating, but as of now chances for redevelopment are only ~20%. Otherwise, low storm chances are also in place across northwest Oklahoma this evening where isolated to scattered convection could form across the High Plains and move into our area. However, overall forcing and steering flow is rather weak, so unless activity can organize a cold pool much of this will likely stay to our west. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Storm chances will decrease and hot temperatures will continue for the early portion of the week as upper ridging strengthens and centers itself across the eastern US. Only exception may be across northwestern Oklahoma early Wednesday as a cold front stalls in the vicinity bringing with it a low chance for showers and thunderstorms. By later Wednesday and Thursday, a tropical wave will begin to lift northwestward into Texas. This wave will be accompanied by a deep moisture plume, with PWATs > 2" spreading as far north as central Oklahoma and as far west as west Texas. Models still differ on the track of the wave which will impact how far north precipitation reaches, but as of now model consensus would suggest that the bulk of the widespread heavier rainfall and risk for flooding will be mainly across southeast, central, and west Texas with this system. More isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible around here on the northern periphery of the wave, with the best chances for precipitation across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas Wednesday night into Thursday. Given such anomalous PWATs, very heavy rainfall would be possible in localized areas where convection occurs. This system could also bring a reprieve from the hotter temperatures, depending on the track of the wave and how extensive the cloud cover becomes. Highs may only reach into the 70s or low 80s in some areas Wednesday and Thursday if the cooler end of guidance were to verify. Given the uncertainty, stuck with the warmer NBM blend for now. Rain chances will then decrease along with increasing temperatures Friday into next weekend as the wave moves by and upper ridging strengthens once again. Ware && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 The models have backed off a little bit with the magnitude of the low-level jet. There will still be some low-level wind shear to deal with overnight, but the magnitude of the shear vector is forecast to be just under the 30-knot threshold to mention LLWS in the TAFs, except for KWWR. Some MVFR ceilings will likely move into KDUA in the morning. Later in the morning, southerly surface winds will increase and become gusty. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 74 91 74 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 74 94 73 91 / 0 0 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 75 92 74 90 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 71 96 71 94 / 10 10 10 0 Ponca City OK 73 94 74 91 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 73 91 72 89 / 0 10 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...26