048
FXUS64 KOUN 172328
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
628 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday across
  northwest into western Oklahoma.

- Exceptionally hot/humid conditions on Thursday and Friday.

- A cold front potentially arrives on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Latest water vapor imagery depicts the center of a broad upper
trough over northwest Utah, and the associated dynamic ascent
will allow for thunderstorm development along the dryline over
eastern New Mexico this afternoon. The greatest lift remains well
north of our CWA tonight as the trough advances towards the northern
plains, and precipitation is expected to weaken/dissipate over the
panhandles before reaching Oklahoma. The presence of low-level WAA
does bring at least low chances for tonight into tomorrow morning,
with POPs peaking at 30-35% between 12 AM and dawn on Wednesday.

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and hot with highs in the mid- to
upper- 90s. Southerly winds will be a bit breezier, with sustained
winds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph over western Oklahoma.
Though mid-level support will be lacking, there is a low chance of
thunderstorms developing along the dryline/trough axis tomorrow
afternoon and evening. Activity should be diurnal in nature and
dissipate not long after sunset, given how far removed our location
is from the upper trough. The potential hazards with this activity
will be cloud-to-ground lightning, large hail up to the size of
quarters, and damaging wind gusts.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Heat ramps up on Thursday and Friday as our area becomes more
influenced by the mid-level ridge and veered low-level flow. High
temperatures will increase to 10-15 degrees above average, with
readings nearing record territory on Thursday at Lawton and SPS. With a
moist boundary layer in place, heat indices are forecast to rise into
the triple digits for some areas on Thursday and Friday.

Another strong trough heads our way from southern California end
of the week and into next weekend. This cyclone becomes stacked upon
ejecting from the Rockies, and the associated cold front is prog`d
to enter Oklahoma on Sunday. Will see increasing shower/storm chances
Friday evening and over the weekend. While there are indications of
a cool down (possibly into the 80s early next week), there remains
considerable uncertainty with the track of the upper trough and
frontal timing.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Primarily VFR forecast will continue. Chances for TSRA impacts
this evening at KWWR too low to include in forecast, but will keep
PROB30 there after 09Z with high based SHRA/-TSRA possible, and
then again tomorrow afternoon. Elsewhere, will keep VFR but cannot
rule out period of MVFR/VFR stratcu after 12-14Z near and east of
I-35 terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  93  72  96 /   0  10   0  10
Hobart OK         70  97  73 100 /  10  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  70  98  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           67  96  70  99 /  30  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     67  93  71  99 /   0  10  10  20
Durant OK         67  93  71  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...11