Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
436 FXUS64 KOUN 231048 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 548 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Stalled weak frontal boundary across northern portions of Oklahoma will slowly weaken and mix back to the north through the day. The hottest temperatures will likely be just south of this boundary, across central portions of Oklahoma. Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees less hot than yesterday north of the front and there will be additional cloud cover at least into early portions of the afternoon, but dewpoints will be higher/pooled north of the front. Despite many locations not quite reaching criteria in latest iteration of forecast, we will keep the heat advisory going for today. With the new forecast numbers indicating heat indices just as high or higher farther south, we expanded the advisory down to the Red River near and east of I-35. Mild/muggy night expected again tonight with most lows well into the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Heat advisory will continue for Monday, with some westward expansion to the one issued for Sunday. Additional advisories can be expected through the week. Broad, upper ridge still forecast to spread westward and become more meridional over the southern and central Rockies for the first half of the week, before getting suppressed some by next weekend. This is expected to produce the hottest stretch most locations have seen this year with upper 90s to lower 100s through the week. Dewpoints progd to remain seasonably high especially across the eastern half of Oklahoma, which allow apparent temperatures to rise close to or slightly higher than heat advisory levels (105F). Wednesday may be the outlier across northern portions of Oklahoma behind a weak front and potential MCS outflow boundary. Relatively low rain chances will continue in the forecast for Tuesday night and early Wednesday, but it still looks like most of the showers and storms will stay must north and east of our forecast area. Hottest temperatures of the week may actually be realized during the latter half with veered flow ahead of the next front that is forecast to move into the region next weekend. This will likely keep at least heat advisory level heat going most days over large areas, with an excessive heat warning for at least parts of the region not out of the question. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR conditions will continue across all terminals. Mid to high level clouds will move across the area. Few to scattered fair weather cumulus clouds are also expected to develop with daytime heating. A wind shift across northern Oklahoma will slowly move southward before stalling somewhere near KCSM to KOKC early to mid afternoon. North of the wind shift, winds will generally be from the east-northeast to east. South of the wind shift, winds will veer to the southwest to west-southwest. In close proximity to the wind shift, winds will be light and variable. The wind shift will dissipate by this evening with winds returning the south across all terminals. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 100 77 99 77 / 10 10 0 0 Hobart OK 101 76 101 78 / 10 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 100 76 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 99 75 101 77 / 0 10 0 10 Ponca City OK 98 76 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 98 76 99 77 / 0 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ005>008- 011>013-017>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052. Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>032-040>043-046>048- 050>052. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...10