225
FXUS64 KOUN 251929
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
229 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening across the
northern half of Oklahoma. A few stronger storms could produce
damaging wind gusts, as downdraft CAPE will be over 1400 J/kg.
Storm intensity will weaken into the evening, and should be out of
the area by midnight or shortly after. A weak frontal boundary
will move in beginning early tomorrow morning, and will continue
through the area during the afternoon. This boundary is expected
to stall south and east of I-44, where severe storms along the
boundary are possible. Thermodynamic profiles tomorrow afternoon
will support large hail and damaging winds with any stronger storm
that develops. Head headlines will also continue tomorrow
afternoon across the whole area. An excessive heat warning will be
in effect starting at 11 am until 9 pm as there is increased
confidence in heat indices over 110 F for southern and
southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas. A heat advisory is
also in effect for for the rest of the area during the same
timeframe.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Heat headlines will likely be needed through the remainder of the
week and into the weekend. There may be some brief relief of the
heat during the latter portions of the weekend, but temperatures
will quickly bounce back up to upper 90s and low 100s. Daily low
chances of thunderstorms are possible through the weekend, mainly
across the northern half of the area. Looking ahead to next week,
there is no signal for longer duration relief from the heat that
we have been getting recently as we will be sitting under a mid-
level ridge.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A thin band of mid-level clouds across southern Kansas
and northern Oklahoma should continue to thin and
move southeast this afternoon. Isolated showers
may continue to form, but thunderstorms appear
unlikely through mid afternoon.

CAMs favor widely scattered storms develop near northwest
Oklahoma (WWR) late this morning.  Storms that form are
expected to move southeast and will have the potential to
produce damaging winds. It`s possible that a storm or two
may also impact CSM.

A surface boundary will move into northern Oklahoma early
Wednesday. This will produce a wind to at least PNC/WWR.

Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with the exception of
maybe MVFR visibilities in thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76 101  76  98 /  20  10  10  10
Hobart OK         77 104  77 102 /  20  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  79 104  77 103 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           70 100  73 100 /  30  10  20  10
Ponca City OK     74  98  71  93 /  30   0  20  10
Durant OK         78 100  76  98 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ004>032.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for
     OKZ033>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...06