Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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616 FXUS64 KOUN 192255 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 555 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The shower and thunderstorms that occurred this morning over northwest into west-central Oklahoma has dissipated, although there is remnant activity north of the Kansas state line. The associated outflow boundary has pushed farther south than expected and surface observations and radar show the boundary currently located from near Quanah to OKC. There is a slight chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms redeveloping this afternoon near the outflow boundary and parts of northern Oklahoma. With the lingering cloud-cover over far northwest Oklahoma, temperatures have been slower to increase this afternoon, with current readings in the mid/upper 70`s. The rest of Oklahoma and western north Texas are seasonable with temperatures in the middle to upper 80`s. Tropical Storm Alberto has slowed in forward speed some, and is now expected to make landfall later tonight along the gulf coast of Mexico. Increased cloud-cover is anticipated as the northern periphery of this tropical system spreads northwestward this evening and tomorrow, and there is a low chance (less than 20%) of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms within these outer bands tomorrow. With scattered to broken cloud-cover and light to moderate southeasterly winds, high temperatures will be similar to those seen today. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The 598 dam H500 ridge, which is centered over the northeastern CONUS, begins to retrograde towards the southern plains over the next few days. This feature reaches our region this weekend and then settles over the desert southwest beginning of next week. Although the LLTR will be maximized over the western half of the CONUS, the effects will still be felt here beginning this weekend. Near-record temperatures (both maximum and warmest low temperatures) are forecast from Sunday into Tuesday, with the potential heat wave lasting through end of next week. Record High Temperatures to be challenged: SUNDAY MONDAY TUESDAY OKC (101/1934) (104/1911) - SWO (102/1934)* (104/1918)* (104/2009) SPS (104/2011) - - *Monthly record at SWO (106 on 6/10/06) Record Warm Low Temperatures to be challenged: SUNDAY MONDAY TUESDAY OKC (77/1934) (78/1953) - SWO (81/1960) (79/2022) (82/1924) LAW (79/1969) (79/1969) (80/1969) SPS - - (82/1953) Dewpoint temperatures are forecast to remain in the 60`s and possibly increase into the 70`s towards middle of next week. The heat combined with the very moist boundary layer could yield uncomfortable heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees over much of north-central Oklahoma on Sunday with greater aerial coverage increasing on Monday and Tuesday. Very hot daytime conditions and warm overnight low temperatures (mid/upper 70`s) could make effective cooling difficult without air conditioning and adequate hydration. Based on the experimental NWS HeatRisk tool, there is a Major Risk of heat-related impacts (level 4 out of 5) for sensitive populations on Sunday with an Extreme Heat Risk (level 5 out of 5) on Monday and Tuesday. Heat stress can be cumulative, and with the potential prolonged nature of this heat wave, each additional day of hot/humid conditions will pose a progressively higher risk to heat- related illness for vulnerable populations. For details on the experimental NWS HeatRisk tool, please visit: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk Fleeting and low probabilities of shower/storm activity exist for western and northern Oklahoma Friday into Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 VFR conditions to continue. Light east to southeast winds expected overnight with areas of mid clouds. Winds will remain from the east and southeast on Thursday at 12kts or less. Abundant cu development expected during mid/late morning as well as increasing mid clouds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 71 88 73 92 / 10 10 0 0 Hobart OK 69 88 72 93 / 10 10 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 73 89 73 93 / 10 20 10 10 Gage OK 66 88 69 92 / 10 10 10 20 Ponca City OK 71 89 73 93 / 10 10 0 10 Durant OK 73 90 72 93 / 10 20 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...30