Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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404 FXUS64 KOUN 160846 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 346 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 346 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 - Isolated showers/storms west this afternoon/evening. - Above average temperatures much of this week - Rain chances Tuesday night/Wednesday north and west, higher rain chances areawide starting Friday night. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 An altocumulus field with a few small showers has developed in northwest Oklahoma early this morning. These will likely persist through the morning hours, but may not linger through sunrise so at the moment will not include any mentionable POPs for this morning, but we will be watching the trends. This afternoon, once again there is the potential of isolated showers and storms to develop in the west as we have seen the last few days. Again without any significant forcing, the expectation is that the convection will be rather isolated and likely not worth 20 percent POPs, but will again include isolated thunderstorms in the weather grid between 21Z and 03Z tonight. The mid-level ridge continues to build into the area with rising 500 mb heights today. But at the same time, easterly low-level winds today have a slight negative temperature advection component, so forecast high temperatures are a degree or two lower than yesterday. Not that it matters much because it is still going to be quite warm by mid September standards. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Mid-level shortwave vorticity in the southwesterly flow above the High Plains will approach the area tomorrow night as the western U.S. longwave trough ejects toward the northern Rockies and northern Plains. There will be a decent chance to see scattered showers and storms in the west and north Tuesday night into Wednesday as this shortwave brushes northwestern Oklahoma. Although the mid-level ridge flattens somewhat as this shortwave moves by. After this shortwave moves by, the mid-level ridge will build even more strongly over the southern Plains with the 588 dm 500 mb geopotential height contour expanding well north of the Oklahoma, so even warmer temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday with some triple digit highs likely in the west. Some daily high records may be in jeopardy. But as we get to the weekend, the next longwave trough will eject from the western United States toward the Plains, and is forecast to move farther south than the early week system. This will bring higher rain chances across the area potentially starting Friday night, although the trend in the models is a bit slower with this system so the better chances may be a little later into the weekend. Will not deviate from NBM POPs yet, but will watch the model and NBM forecast trends. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Clear skies expected for a good portion of the night, although late in the evening some MVFR stratus is possible in southeastern and south central Oklahoma. VFR conditions return after daybreak, with southeast winds around 10 knots in most locations (and some gusts in the 15-20 mph range in northwest Oklahoma). Meister && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 87 64 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 93 65 93 69 / 10 10 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 94 66 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 93 64 93 66 / 10 10 0 30 Ponca City OK 90 63 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 90 66 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...04