873
FXUS64 KOUN 221918
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
218 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Tonight...

A weak cold front will move into far northwest Oklahoma late this
afternoon. There is a low chance (~20%) of a few showers or
thunderstorms develop along the boundary through roughly 10 pm.
If a storm or two develops, strong gusty winds will occur.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with some high clouds across
the northern half of Oklahoma during the evening and overnight.

Sunday...

A residual boundary is expected to remain across far
northern Oklahoma during the day Sunday.  This should keep
surface winds with more of an easterly component north of
the boundary. Otherwise, the wind is not expected to be as strong
on Sunday and temperatures will again approach 100 degrees,
especially western and northern Oklahoma. Based on gridded data,
it appears parts of north central Oklahoma will have the best
chance of reaching or exceeding heat index values of 105. A Heat
Advisory will be issued for this area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Sunday night...

Surface winds north of the weak boundary in far northern Oklahoma
are expected to become southerly and increase Sunday night.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with scattered high clouds
mainly across the northern half of Oklahoma.

Monday...

Triple digit air temperatures are expected across most of Oklahoma
and western north Texas.  A moderate breeze during the afternoon
should provide a little relief from the heat and most areas will not
have overly high afternoon dewpoint temperatures.  The exception
will be south central and southeast Oklahoma.  Gridded data has
afternoon heat index values over 105 across this area.  Dry
conditions are expected Monday night with a light to moderate
southerly wind.

Tuesday...

A fast moving shortwave trough moving across the northern
Plains late Monday will push a cold front through most of Kansas on
Tuesday. Meanwhile, the center of the mid/upper ridge is forecast
to retrograde far enough to allow a perturbation to skirt the
area Tuesday afternoon/evening. This may result in at least widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms that will mainly impact north
central and perhaps central Oklahoma. Strong gusty winds are
possible with some of the storms mainly during the late afternoon
and early evening. Somewhat warmer mid-level temperatures across
northwest and west central Oklahoma may limit the development over
this area. PoPs during this period (late afternoon/Tuesday night)
are still on the low side (20-40 percent).

Before the rain chances, triple digit heat will occur again with
perhaps slightly higher afternoon humidity.  This will increase
heat index values into the 105 to 110 range.

Wednesday...

Uncertainty on the location of a residual boundary is high for
Wednesday, but may be enough to keep air temperatures across northern
Oklahoma slightly cooler.  Despite the boundary, it appears late
afternoon thunderstorms chances will remain rather low (less than 20
percent). Another day of heat index values in the 105 to 110 range is
expected, especially across the southern half of Oklahoma and
western north Texas.

Thursday into Friday...

It`s possible that a trough will move across the Pacific
Northwest Thursday and across the northern Plains Friday. This
should reduce the amplitude of the ridge to our west and perhaps
lower daytime highs slightly. This would also increase southerly
surface winds which is nice, but it also increases evaporation
which is not good. Northwest Oklahoma has a low chance of late
afternoon storms late Thursday, but most areas will remain dry
through this period.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. Gusty
south/southwesterly winds will continue through ~sunset, along
with scattered areas of fair weather cumulus. A few (widely
scattered) rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out across far northern Oklahoma this evening, though probability (<15%)
and coverage preclude mention at any terminal this update.

Otherwise, a weak front remains forecast to approach the
Oklahoma/Kansas border region early on Sunday, and may result in
variable winds at KPNC.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78  98  78  97 /   0  10   0   0
Hobart OK         76 100  76  99 /   0  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  76  99  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           73  98  75  99 /  10   0  10   0
Ponca City OK     77  98  77  99 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         76  98  76 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...34