Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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808 FXUS64 KOUN 240502 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1202 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 - Areas of fog, some dense tonight, mainly southeast of I-44. - Rain chances return Tuesday/Tuesday night (30-50%) with next cold front. - Additional chances for rain Friday into Saturday, but lower than normal confidence during this period. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Skies have been slow to clear across central and eastern Oklahoma early this afternoon, keeping temperatures cooler in the mid to upper 60s, with some low 70s to the west. With continued clearing overnight and light winds, expect good radiational cooling conditions. This will help low temperatures fall into the low 50s north to upper 50s south. With substantial ground moisture across central and southern parts of the area, conditions will also be favorable for at least patchy fog to develop early Tuesday morning. Tuesday will see a bit of a warming trend with highs expected to reach the upper 70s and low 80s ahead of our next cold front. This front will move across the area during the afternoon and evening as a cutoff low develops to our north and east. This system is expected to bring a chance (30-50%) for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the area, with the best chances across central and southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Wednesday and Thursday appear dry and mild as the upper low is forecast to move southward into Arkansas. As it does so, PTC9 (likely to be Hurricane Helene at this point) is forecast to move northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Most models suggest the upper low and tropical system will then undergo a Fujiwhara interaction as the two systems rotate around each other. Depending on how all of that shakes out, we could see tropical moisture entrained into the circulation of the upper low and advected westward into our area, which would set up the potential for rain chances to rotate into the area from the east. A lot of factors are at play to lead to this scenario, so expect continued changes to the forecast as models come into better agreement. For now, we have 20-30% chances for rain across roughly the eastern half of the area Friday into Saturday. The temperature forecast is also a bit uncertain by late week into the weekend, as greater cloud/shower coverage would likely lead to cooler temperatures than we have currently. Ware && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...IFR conditions expected early this morning... IFR vis/cig restrictions appear likely near KOUN south and east toward KDUA for several hours early this morning, with lower chances for IFR but likely MVFR from KSWO to KOKC and toward KLAW and KSPS. With what develops, there will be southwest component to lower level flow to help insolation reduce restrictions, but high clouds will also be increasing after 12Z. Will keep VFR conditions toward and after 16/17Z. Prob30 TSRA was included in this set of TAFs for scattered convection that is possible along and just ahead of incoming cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 81 58 78 55 / 10 30 10 0 Hobart OK 88 58 84 54 / 20 20 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 89 62 85 57 / 10 40 0 0 Gage OK 84 52 83 51 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 78 54 80 53 / 10 10 0 0 Durant OK 87 62 84 59 / 0 40 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...11