986
FXUS64 KOUN 250334
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1034 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Mid afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

A persistent band of mid-level clouds across northern Oklahoma
continues to drift eastward this afternoon. A few light showers
may occur, but overall the clouds should gradually decrease, as a
weak disturbance over southwest Kansas moves east.

A mid and upper level ridge is currently centered from roughly
southern Arizona into central/southern Texas.  The ridge is expected
to build over the southwestern states through Tuesday.  As this
occurs, the mid to upper flow will become northwesterly.
Before this, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected to
develop across eastern Colorado and New Mexico. A few of these
storms may reach northwestern Oklahoma by late evening/early
overnight. Otherwise, some cloud debris could overspread the area.

Somewhat higher dewpoint air is expected to advect into Oklahoma and
northern Texas on Tuesday.  Unfortunately, this will only exacerbate
the heat with higher heat index values.  Heat index values of
105 to 110 are expected during a majority of the afternoon hours.
Parts of south central and southeast Oklahoma may exceed 110 but
confidence is not high enough to include this area in a Excessive
Heat Warning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Tuesday night and Wednesday...

By late afternoon, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop along
a prefrontal trough in southwest Kansas/Panhandles area.  Although
the instability is not expect to be overly high, high-based storms
will have the potential to produce damaging winds.  Still uncertain
how far south and east storms will move/develop through the early to
mid evening.  A more organized area of thunderstorms is possible
along a cold front in Kansas during the evening.  There is an
outside chance of a thunderstorms complex impacting mainly the
eastern half of Oklahoma overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Not confident enough at this time to adjust PoPs higher and extend
into southern Oklahoma.

A cold front is expected to move across at least the northern
half of Oklahoma Wednesday which should keep temperatures at or
just below 100 during the afternoon. Farther south hot
temperatures and humidity will result in heat index values from
105 to perhaps 110. With some uncertainty with how far the front
may push Wednesday, and residual influences from overnight/early
morning convection, a Heat Advisory will not be issued for
Wednesday.

Late afternoon storms may develop across parts of southern Oklahoma,
but coverage will be limited.  Other storms may move into
northwestern Oklahoma during the evening.

Thursday and Friday...

The upper ridge to our west is expected to flatten and build into
the southern Plains Thursday into Friday. Meanwhile, a shortwave
trough will move across the northern Rockies and northern Plains.
During this period, rain and thunderstorms will be confined to
mainly northwest Oklahoma during the evening hours. A breezy
southerly wind is expected also, especially Thursday afternoon
through Friday afternoon/evening. Heat headlines may be required
for the southern half of Oklahoma and northern Texas each
afternoon.

Saturday and Sunday...
Thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday into Sunday as another
cold front approaches northern Oklahoma.  Models have also trended
with a stronger mid-level ridge near Oklahoma. This may limit
thunderstorm coverage and or keep a majority of the rain to our
north this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 941 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions to continue.

Light south wind will continue overnight with a few high clouds
streaming across from high Plains convection. Although there is a
very low chance that a storm makes it into northwest Oklahoma late
tonight, chances are too low to include in WWR taf at this time.
South winds will increase some during the day Tuesday, especially
across the west where gusts above 20kts are expected. Have
included a mention of tsra at PNC after 00Z tomorrow evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78  99  76  99 /   0  10  20  10
Hobart OK         78 101  76 102 /   0  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  79 100  79 102 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           76 104  71 100 /  20  20  20  10
Ponca City OK     78 101  73  96 /   0  30  30  10
Durant OK         78  98  78  99 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30