Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
720 FXUS64 KOUN 230739 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 239 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 235 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Rain chances return Tuesday / Tuesday nigh (30-50%) with next cold front. - Cool temperatures (70s / 80s) will persist through the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Showers and storms are gradually making their way southeastward out of our forecast area this morning. CAMs show some signal of scattered redevelopment through the morning hours, though this appears to be overdone compared to radar trends. Reduced PoPs for this period significantly from the likely`s that NBM was giving. A cold front has passed through the area, leaving us much cooler. Expect highs in the 70s with light northerly winds under clearing skies today. Tonight temperatures will drop into the 40s and 50s. With strong radiational cooling expected (clear skies / light winds), there will likely be a lot of local variation in minimum temperatures. The NAM suggests some fog development in south central Oklahoma toward dawn, but thus far this model appears to be an outlier. Day && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The next system is forecast to drop down through the central plains Tuesday / Tuesday night. This will result in some low to medium rain chances late Tuesday into early Wednesday, especially across the southeastern half of the forecast area. After that, synoptic uncertainty ramps up. Models cut off the upper low and stall it near Arkansas. Meanwhile, a tropical system will come northward out of the gulf. This will result in a Fujiwhara effect as the two cyclonic systems rotate around each other, possibly bringing their influence back over our forecast area late in the week. The big question is which way will this spinning top wobble. Temperatures will remain in the 70s and 80s through most of the week. After Thursday, uncertainty increases (see paragraph above) with interquartile ranges approaching 10 degrees. Day && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 TSRA will be mainly confined to southeast Oklahoma terminal (KDUA) first 3 to 4 hours of forecast, with RA exiting western north Texas and central Oklahoma same time frame. IFR/MVFR cigs expected to hang tough through at least 14-16Z most terminals, with improvement and clearing at KWWR and spreading to the south and east through the morning and afternoon hours. Northerly winds will subside through the day, becoming light and variable by evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 73 56 81 58 / 30 0 10 40 Hobart OK 77 56 86 57 / 10 0 20 30 Wichita Falls TX 78 59 88 62 / 20 0 10 50 Gage OK 75 52 83 52 / 0 0 20 10 Ponca City OK 73 53 78 52 / 20 0 20 20 Durant OK 79 59 87 61 / 40 0 10 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...11