296
FXUS64 KOUN 061728
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

With a surface ridge centered over the eastern-third of Oklahoma
early this morning, winds are light and variable to calm.  Dewpoint
depression are 1 to 2 degrees at best, so will likely see shallow
ground fog and/or a heavy dew. A few areas of mid-level clouds
have developed across northern and central Oklahoma and
are generally drifting southward. There may be just enough
forcing just before and after sunrise for weak elevated showers.
If showers develop, they will move slowly to the east/southeast
and stay across mainly north central Oklahoma.

Later this afternoon, models are fairly similar in pushing a cold
front into northern and central Oklahoma.  During peak heating 4 to
6 pm, a few thunderstorms may develop along the boundary with
perhaps better chances over the higher terrain in the Texas
Panhandle/far west central Oklahoma. Although the flow will not
be particularly strong, 30-35 knots around 500mb and decent
temperature/dewpoint spreads will support strong wind gusts.
Expect a few storms will develop, but less certain along the front
in central Oklahoma. Storms that form should move south/southeast
around 15 mph.

A modest low-level jet over the Panhandles into northwest Oklahoma
may aid in the development of elevated showers late overnight into
early Friday morning.  Severe weather is not expected if convection
occurs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Easterly surface winds early Friday will become southerly and
increase during the day, especially across western Oklahoma where
gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible.

Friday afternoon and evening, thunderstorms are expected to develop
well to our west and north.  There is a chance that some of these
storms may develop over/or move across the northern third of
Oklahoma, during the late evening and overnight.  A possible MCS
over Nebraska and Kansas should remain north and east, but not sure
about an associated outflow boundary.  Regardless, another cold front
is expected to enter northern Oklahoma during the afternoon.  Models
are not overly excited about development along the front in northern
Oklahoma. However, upslope flow should result thunderstorms over
eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico.  This is expected to
organize into an MCS and move across at least the northern half of
Oklahoma during the overnight/early Sunday morning.  Heavy rainfall
and damaging winds are certainly possible, with maybe a hail risk on
the western edge of the complex.

How far the cold front/outflow boundary will be by Sunday afternoon
is uncertain.  For now will go with the idea of it being across
northern Texas.  This should limit afternoon thunderstorm chances
across much of the area.  Overnight Sunday into Monday, warm air
advection north of the frontal boundary may result in additional
storms.  Perhaps another MCS arrives late Monday into Tuesday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions are forecast for most sites through the period,
though low chances (20-30%) for lowered category (due to
thunderstorms) exist across western Oklahoma this evening. A weak
front will continue pushing into portions of northern Oklahoma
through this afternoon. After 20-21 UTC, widely scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop along/near this feature. At
this update, PROB30 groups were added at sites (WWR/CSM) where
odds for impact/lowered category are highest. Convective concern
should diminish shortly after sunset (~02-04 UTC), with additional
low chances for a few showers into early Friday morning across
northern Oklahoma.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  89  74  95 /  20  10  10  10
Hobart OK         68  95  75 100 /  30  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  70  94  75  99 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           64  95  70  97 /  30  20  20  10
Ponca City OK     64  88  72  94 /  20  10  30  10
Durant OK         69  90  73  94 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...34