341
FXUS64 KOUN 021736
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER... Issued at 1059 AM CDT Sun
Jun 2 2024

Near-term forecast has undergone some complications this morning.
Convection across the eastern Texas panhandle, rather than dying
out, has intensified and begun propagating eastward across the Red
River Valley of southwest Oklahoma. The likely culprit appears to be
two-fold - first, a surge of greater boundary layer moisture with
dewpoints in the low 70s in southern Oklahoma; and secondly, the
development of an MCV from the panhandle storms to aid in forcing
for convection to develop. While no convection-allowing models have
handled this turn of events well, short-range guidance shows MLCAPE
increasing from 1,500-2,000 J/kg this morning to nearly 4,000 J/kg
(almost certainly overdone thanks to widespread anvil shading in
reality, but still a signal of the increasing moisture/lapse rates
aloft) by noon.

The ongoing storms will continue to propagate eastward along the
developing MCV throughout the rest of the morning and into early
this afternoon. The severe risk will be on the sporadic side due to
the weak nature of overall deep-layer shear. Still, hail to the size
of quarters, damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, frequent cloud-to-
ground lightning, and heavy rainfall will all be possible with this
activity as it approaches I-35 along and south of I-40. It`s
possible the activity will begin to weaken this afternoon as it
approaches southeast Oklahoma. Then our eyes will turn to potential
next rounds of severe weather.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The next chance for storms after this early round won`t wait long,
as another round of convection is expected to work in this evening
from the Texas panhandle. Some questions exist about how much of our
area will experience storms this evening due to the steady push of
outflow southward into western north Texas. However, West Texas
Mesonet obs show winds north of the boundary from the east and winds
south of the boundary from the south - an indication that perhaps
the boundary is stalling or "washing out". Dewpoints have dropped to
near 60 on the north side, but it is June so we will have to monitor
for evapotranspirative recovery in western Oklahoma. For now, the
greatest risk for storms this afternoon will be in western north
Texas along and south of the outflow boundary. Large hail and
damaging winds will be possible, especially if storms can attain a
more supercellular structure and remain close to the boundary.

This evening, activity will approach western Oklahoma and western
north Texas from the Texas panhandle after firing off of the
dryline. Uncertainty is extremely high given the current presence of
the cold pool/stable air. However, the low-level jet will be active
this evening, which lends some concern to the notion that we could
re-destabilize this evening in advance of another MCS. Trends will
be watched closely.

Believe it or not, there is actually a signal for yet another MCS
this evening to come southeastward out of Kansas. This one might be
impacting our area late tonight through daybreak tomorrow. Beyond
that, there is so much mesoscale uncertainty that it just bears
waiting to see what will happen.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

May have a triple point to play with Monday afternoon across
northwest Oklahoma with a weak surface low connecting both the weak
front across Kansas and a dryline that will be located across
western Oklahoma. Storms may form by afternoon near this
intersection and then expand east and southeast into central and
then eastern Oklahoma by evening.

Surface boundary will still be in place as we go through the day
Tuesday, along with the dryline and may see more isolated
development along these boundaries Tuesday afternoon and evening
from central into northeast Oklahoma. Does appear to be some upper
support as trailing end of shortwave trough traverses the area.

By the middle of the week mid-level ridge builds east out of the
Rockies into the Plains as large upper low moves through the Great
Lakes region. This will initially bring warmer temps to the area
with most of Oklahoma and north Texas warming into the 90s with only
minimal rain chances. We also remain on the fringe of northwest flow
and by late in the week models bring another surface front south
into the area, which may bring slightly cooler air and at least some
additional rain chances for the end of the week into the following
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Low clouds have developed across southwest Oklahoma and western
north Texas this morning with mainly VFR to near MVFR ceilings.
Thunderstorms are moving across far northwest Oklahoma so
have added a mention of TSRA at WWR through about 14Z. A breezy
southerly wind will develop at all sites this morning and continue
through the afternoon. Thunderstorms may develop across West Texas
this afternoon and move into western and central Oklahoma after
00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  85  71  92 /  40  50  20  10
Hobart OK         67  93  69  97 /  40  20  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  69  91  73  96 /  40  20  10   0
Gage OK           65  93  66  97 /  40  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     68  84  69  89 /  40  50  30  20
Durant OK         69  86  72  89 /  40  40  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06