287
FXUS64 KOUN 011124
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
624 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Complex affecting portions of western north Texas early this
morning is expected to continue to slowly weaken through the early
morning hours. Another area of showers and thunderstorms across
western Kansas will make a run at northwest Oklahoma this morning,
but these too are expected to weaken as they move into the area
toward morning.

A few residual showers and thunderstorms that last into first part
of the day today will gradually dissipate. There is a signal for
a few isolated to widely scattered storms this afternoon, but most
of the area will remain dry through much of the day and into this
evening. Otherwise today will see the beginning of warming trend
that will likely through at least the middle of the upcoming week.

As we go through the afternoon and into this evening, again
expect convection to develop across much of the High plains. This
activity will grow upscale into several complexes of storms (MCS)
that will make their way east and southeast out into the Plain
states. These are expected to make their way into western sections
of Oklahoma and western north Texas by late evening and will
likely remain stronger longer given sufficient instability as well
as a stronger llj across west Texas and western Oklahoma. These
will make their way east across the area tonight with a damaging
wind risk as well as some hail potential. Isolated heavy rainfall
will also be a concern.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Much like the last few days, some lingering morning
shower/thunderstorm activity is possible Sunday, but much of the
area should see dry conditions through a majority of the day.

More of a signal across the northern/central Plains Sunday night
into Monday with the aid of a weak surface boundary. Although a
rather deep waa layer could result in a few storms further south
across our area.

These lower-end precip chances continue into mid-week with better
chances to the north of the area. Much of the area will also see
daytime temps warm into the 90s as we go through this time frame.

A cold front looks to move south across the area Wednesday, which
will temper the warming trend, no real cold air is associated with
the boundary. It may however shift any lingering precip chances off
to our south and east for the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Tricky forecast for PNC/SWO this morning.  Dense fog has
develop over the past 1 to 2 hours with visibility
near 1/2 mile. Meanwhile, convection has developed ahead
of an MCV over southern Kansas. A little unsure if this
precipitation will reach PNC or SWO, but the increase
in cloud cover may help improve visibility from fog.
It appears the northern Oklahoma convection will remain
east of WWR. Otherwise, MVFR to VFR conditions will prevail
through much of the day. It is possible for storms to form near
DUA, as a remnant MCV moves across southern Oklahoma this
afternoon.

Thunderstorms may move into western Oklahoma late this evening and
overnight and should mainly impact WWR/CSM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  68  87  70 /  20  20  30  20
Hobart OK         88  67  88  69 /  10  30  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  88  70  89  71 /  20  20  20  30
Gage OK           88  64  89  67 /  30  50  20  20
Ponca City OK     84  66  87  69 /  20  20  40  40
Durant OK         87  68  89  71 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06