531
FXUS64 KOUN 051057
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
557 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A cold front will continue to push southward through the rest of
Oklahoma and western north Texas today.  Sometimes the wind shift
and drier air never reaches the lower terrain of southeast Oklahoma.
Despite modest dry air advection behind the front, with the recent
rainfall, evapotranspiration will certainly play a part in elevating
afternoon humidity, especially across southern Oklahoma and western
north Texas.  However, don`t expect to see the ridiculous upper 70
to near 80 dewpoint temperatures like Tuesday afternoon. So it does
appear we will final get at least one day without thunderstorms.

A southerly wind will return by this evening, but wind speeds are
expected to be light. With a mainly clear sky, it`s possible that
areas of fog (perhaps shallow ground fog) will develop. Another
cold front (weak) will begin to move into far northern Oklahoma by
sunrise Thursday.

The current Flood Watch goes through 7 am, but most of the heavy
rainfall will be south of the Red River by 4-5 am, so we will
likely be able to cancel the watch a few hours early.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The cold front Thursday is expected to be near I-40 during peak
heating.  Enough convergence/moisture pooling along the front may
result in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms.  Although
the low-level flow will be weak, there is expected to be modest flow
aloft. Could see a few strong storms, but storm coverage will
likely result in any storms dissipating by early evening.

Very warm 700mb temperatures are expected to overspread at least the
western half of Oklahoma and western north Texas Friday with return
flow.  This should result in mainly dry conditions.  A strong low-
level jet Friday night into Saturday may foster elevated convection.
Most of this should be north of Oklahoma, but there is a chance
some of this activity may develop across northern Oklahoma.

After a hot day Saturday, models agree on a better chance of storms
developing along the high terrain to our northwest. Storms are
expected to organize (MCS) and move across Oklahoma and perhaps
north Texas Saturday overnight/Sunday morning.

A little unsure after Sunday morning.  Models diverge on how far a
cold front may push into Texas Sunday into Monday.  It possible that
a strong enough front may limit additional chances Sunday night
into about Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Precip has ended and in its wake some MVFR ceilings may occur for
a couple of hours this morning across central and southern
Oklahoma and north Texas before these dissipate and skies become
clear across the area. Light north/northeast winds will shift back
around to the south this afternoon, generally less than 12kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  66  93  68 /   0   0  20  20
Hobart OK         93  68  98  68 /   0   0  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  91  68  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           93  68  92  65 /   0  10  20  20
Ponca City OK     87  65  88  64 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         87  65  92  68 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30