111
FXUS64 KOUN 230811 CCA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Norman OK
311 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 235 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

    - Rain chances return Tuesday / Tuesday night (30-50%) with
      next cold front.

    - Cool temperatures (70s / 80s) will persist through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Showers and storms are gradually making their way southeastward out
of our forecast area this morning. CAMs show some signal of
scattered redevelopment through the morning hours, though this
appears to be overdone compared to radar trends. Reduced PoPs for
this period significantly from the likely`s that NBM was giving.

A cold front has passed through the area, leaving us much cooler.
Expect highs in the 70s with light northerly winds under clearing
skies today.

Tonight temperatures will drop into the 40s and 50s. With strong
radiational cooling expected (clear skies / light winds), there will
likely be a lot of local variation in minimum temperatures. The NAM
suggests some fog development in south central Oklahoma toward dawn,
but thus far this model appears to be an outlier.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024


The next system is forecast to drop down through the central plains
Tuesday / Tuesday night. This will result in some low to medium rain
chances late Tuesday into early Wednesday, especially across the
southeastern half of the forecast area.

After that, synoptic uncertainty ramps up. Models cut off the upper
low and stall it near Arkansas. Meanwhile, a tropical system will
come northward out of the gulf. This will result in a Fujiwhara
effect as the two cyclonic systems rotate around each other,
possibly bringing their influence back over our forecast area
late in the week. The big question is which way will this spinning
top wobble.

Temperatures will remain in the 70s and 80s through most of the
week. After Thursday, uncertainty increases (see paragraph above)
with interquartile ranges approaching 10 degrees.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

TSRA will be mainly confined to southeast Oklahoma terminal (KDUA)
first 3 to 4 hours of forecast, with RA exiting western north Texas
and central Oklahoma same time frame. IFR/MVFR cigs expected to hang
tough through at least 14-16Z most terminals, with improvement and
clearing at KWWR and spreading to the south and east through the
morning and afternoon hours. Northerly winds will subside through
the day, becoming light and variable by evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  56  81  58 /  30   0  10  40
Hobart OK         77  56  86  57 /  10   0  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  78  59  88  62 /  20   0  10  50
Gage OK           75  52  83  52 /   0   0  20  10
Ponca City OK     73  53  78  52 /  20   0  20  20
Durant OK         79  59  87  61 /  40   0  10  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...11