863
FXUS64 KOUN 222337
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
637 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

    - Marginal risk for severe storms this afternoon & evening.

    - Marginal to slight risk for localized flooding tonight,
      highest across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas
      into central Oklahoma.

    - Rain chances increase Tuesday (30-50%) with next cold
      front.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across western into central
Oklahoma early this afternoon as a cold front continues to make slow
progress southward. With the upper trough axis still centered well
to our west, we expect additional rounds of showers and storms to
move across the area tonight into Monday morning. Relatively weak
instability but decent deep layer shear should support the risk for
marginally severe storms capable of hail up to quarter size and wind
gusts to near 60 mph.

In addition to the severe risk, storms will have the potential to
produce heavy rainfall this afternoon and overnight as PWATs are
running 1.5-2.0". HREF guidance suggests the heaviest axis of
additional QPF will be from southwest Oklahoma and western north
Texas north and eastward into central Oklahoma, where 1 to locally
up to 3" of rain is forecast. Radar observations tend to agree with
this scenario with several more rounds out storms moving out of the
Texas panhandle. Given we have already seen training of storms
across portions of western into central Oklahoma, localized flooding
will continue to be a possibility through Monday morning.

Activity is expected to diminish Monday morning across southeast
Oklahoma as the frontal forcing moves further away and the upper
trough weakens. Temperatures on Monday will be much cooler than
recent days, with highs only in the 70s across much of the area.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The pattern in the long term portion of the forecast is
characterized by higher than normal uncertainty, mainly regarding
the track and speed of a cutoff low forecast to develop and its
interaction with a tropical system forecast to move northward out of
the Gulf of Mexico.

Models are in fairly good agreement through Tuesday with a
shortwave diving southward within broader troughing over the
central US, with this energy expected to begin to cutoff from the
main flow somewhere over KS/OK/MO/AR. This will bring another
chance (30-50%) for showers and storms Tuesday afternoon and
evening as a weak cold front crosses the area. Meanwhile, a
tropical system will begin to take shape in the northwest
Caribbean and move northward into the Gulf of Mexico. Most models
show these two systems interacting as the tropical system
landfalls along the eastern Gulf coast, but from here the details
become unclear. Some of the guidance merges these two systems and
then retrograde the circulation westward towards our area as a
blocking ridge sets up across the Great Lakes later this week,
potentially bringing rain chances into the region. However, since
neither of these systems have yet to develop, continued
uncertainty is expected to plague the forecast the next several
days.

Greater confidence exists in the temperature forecast as mid-upper
troughing and north/northeasterly surface winds are maintained over
the area much of the week. This should help keep high temperatures 5-
10 degrees below average through the end o the week, with highs
generally in the 70s to low 80s.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

IFR cigs, currently across northern and central Oklahoma,
expected to rise into MVFR category overnight and eventually to
VFR tomorrow as drier air filters in over the region in the wake
of rain shield. Ceiling restrictions will spread across southern
Oklahoma and northern Oklahoma terminals tonight, then rebound
toward and after 18Z tomorrow. Most of the restrictive RA/TSRA
will be seen this evening from KLAW and KSPS up through KOUN.
Gusty northerly winds will diminish through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  58  73  56  80 /  90  30   0  10
Hobart OK         55  77  55  85 /  80  10   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  60  78  57  87 /  80  40  10  20
Gage OK           47  75  51  83 /  20   0   0  20
Ponca City OK     57  73  52  79 /  60  20   0  10
Durant OK         66  79  60  86 /  50  60  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...11