287
FXUS64 KOUN 251743
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Remnant showers and thunderstorms moving southeast across Kansas
may approach northern Oklahoma this morning as they weaken.
Otherwise, hot conditions will continue today (and beyond) with
Oklahoma and north Texas on the northeast periphery of a ~593 dam
mid-level ridge. Afternoon highs will once again be in the upper
90s to mid 100s deg F with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110
deg F. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for this afternoon.

The given synoptic pattern places the Southern Plains within
northwest flow aloft. Various convective-allowing and
parameterized models indicate ascent from a subtle vort max/PV
anomaly embedded in the northwest flow will be sufficient for
convection initiation across northern Oklahoma in an uncapped
environment late afternoon into the evening. Given the ascent
appears subtle, thunderstorms are not a guarantee, but there is at
least a modest chance (~40%).

If thunderstorms occur, the primary hazard will be damaging wind
gusts given a large amount of downdraft CAPE (~1500 J/kg) and
modest temperature-dewpoint spreads (~40 deg F) in a hot
environment. Any thunderstorms should gradually weaken with the
loss of daytime heating during the latter half of the evening as
they move southward.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Wednesday: A weak boundary/wind shift will advance southward and
will near be located near I-40 during the afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorms may develop near this boundary across east central
into southeast Oklahoma. Otherwise, hot and humid conditions will
continue. Moisture-pooling near and south of this boundary and
easterly winds will result in even higher dew points with heat
indices at least reaching 110 deg F. Therefore, a Heat Advisory
was issued for Wednesday. There is the potential parts of the
area, especially across southern Oklahoma, may need to be upgraded
to an Excessive Heat Warning. Winds will be light with the weak
boundary in the area, so wet bulb globe temperatures could reach
the extreme category.

Thursday-Friday: The mid-level ridge will become elongated in a
west to east direction across the southern half of the United
States. Northern Oklahoma will be on the southern periphery of
stronger mid-level flow. Thunderstorms (or at least the remnants
of thunderstorms) may skirt near the Kansas/Oklahoma border with
most of the convection staying to the north. Otherwise, the heat
will continue. Heat Advisories will likely be needed during this
period.

Saturday-Sunday: A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great
Lakes region, which will advance a cold front southward into the
Plains with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. There is
uncertainty on how far south the cold front and cooler air will
advance with probabilistic guidance indicating a 10 to 15 deg F
range for high temperatures on Sunday (between the 10th and 90th
percentiles). This is the largest temperature spread among
probabilistic guidance in the next week. At this time, the most
likely scenario is a few degrees cooler Sunday with highs in the
mid 90s to low 100s deg F. There is only a 20% chance for high
temperatures in the 80s deg F across northern Oklahoma. That
probability decreases to 10% in central Oklahoma.

Monday: Any cool down will be brief as temperatures will likely
rise early next week with a strengthening low-level thermal
ridge.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A thin band of mid-level clouds across southern Kansas
and northern Oklahoma should continue to thin and
move southeast this afternoon. Isolated showers
may continue to form, but thunderstorms appear
unlikely through mid afternoon.

CAMs favor widely scattered storms develop near northwest
Oklahoma (WWR) late this morning.  Storms that form are
expected to move southeast and will have the potential to
produce damaging winds. It`s possible that a storm or two
may also impact CSM.

A surface boundary will move into northern Oklahoma early
Wednesday. This will produce a wind to at least PNC/WWR.

Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with the exception of
maybe MVFR visibilities in thunderstorms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76 101  74  98 /  30  10  10   0
Hobart OK         76 103  75 101 /  30  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  79 104  77 102 /  20   0   0   0
Gage OK           71  99  72 101 /  30   0  10   0
Ponca City OK     74  99  72  96 /  40  10  10  10
Durant OK         79  99  75  99 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...06