902
FXUS64 KOUN 221129
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
629 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

    - Showers and storms continue marching southeast through
      Monday morning. Hazards include a marginal risk for damaging
      wind gusts, marginally severe hail, and localized
      flooding.

    - Below average temperatures this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A cold front will push through the forecast area today, bringing
widespread showers and storms along with it. There is a marginal
risk for severe storms (main hazards: damaging winds, marginally
severe hail, and heavy rain) along a broad area roughly centered on
the I-44 corridor late this morning through early evening.
Concerning heavy rain, PWATs of 1.5-2 inches combined with steering
flow roughly parallel to the front give some concern for training
storms and localized flooding. However, the recent lack of recent
rainfall sets the bar high for 1 and 3 hour flash flood guidance
(2.5 to 4 inches). HREF guidance suggest southwest Oklahoma and
western north Texas will see the highest QPF totals, with 3-hr 1
inch exceedance probabilities in the 50-70% range. Rain chances will
linger overnight, decreasing and shifting southeast.

Much cooler temperatures will fill in the wake of the cold front,
yielding a tight temperature gradient with highs in the 60s in
northwest Oklahoma to the lower 90s in south central Oklahoma today.
Uncertainty is highest along and surrounding the I-44 corridor with
NBM interquartile ranges of 6 to 7 degrees. Lows tonight will drop
into the mid 40s in northwest Oklahoma.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Rain chances diminish Monday morning across southeast Oklahoma as
the front pushes further south of the area. Cooler temperatures are
expected to stick around for much of the coming week, with highs 5-
10 degrees below average for this time of year (highs in the 70s and
80s) as a trough remains over the central US.

As shortwave energy digs across the central plains and attempts to
form another cutoff low, parts of the area could see additional
chances for showers and storms. However, models still show
significant disagreement on the track of this next system and
uncertainty is higher than normal at this range. This system may
then linger in the vicinity late next week, maintaining cooler
temperatures and potentially more rain chances for parts of the
area.

Day/Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Intervals of lowered category are expected at all terminals
through the period. Scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms are forecast for today and tonight, with highest
coverage expected along and south of the Interstate 40 corridor.
Lowered vis/cig would be expected should direct impact to a
terminal occur. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible near
thunderstorms during the daytime.

Otherwise, a more notable frontal intrusion will occur through
the day today (from northwest-to-southeast). In addition to a
period of gusty north/northwest winds, post-frontal stratus is
likely to emerge (MVFR-to-IFR cigs).

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  80  56  72  55 /  80  70  20   0
Hobart OK         78  54  76  53 /  90  60   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  88  59  78  58 /  60  80  20  10
Gage OK           68  47  73  50 /  70  10   0  10
Ponca City OK     76  56  72  51 /  70  60  10   0
Durant OK         94  64  79  59 /  10  30  60  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...34