Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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017 FXUS64 KOUN 121922 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 222 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A southerly wind will prevail tonight, with higher wind speeds expected across parts of western and northern Oklahoma. The wind may decrease enough across parts of western north Texas for patchy fog to form by sunrise Thursday. At this time, it appears any fog that forms will be shallow and short lived. Hotter temperatures are expected by Thursday afternoon, as a mid and upper ridge builds closer to the southern Plains. Triple digit air temperatures are expected across parts of northern and western Oklahoma. Although air temperatures will be less elsewhere, more humid air will increase the apparent temperature, particularly rain-soaked areas of western north Texas. Where the triple digit heat is expected, a southerly wind and fairly low humidity should provide some relief. At this time, we will not issue any heat headlines for parts of northern Oklahoma where heat index values will approach 105 during the mid to late afternoon. Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop to our north and west as a cold front approaches northern Oklahoma. Any storms that form should not reach northern (northwest) Oklahoma until the early evening. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Model guidance suggest some storms will reach northwest Oklahoma before dissipating during the mid evening. Some of these storms will have the potential to produce strong to perhaps damaging winds (greater than 60 mph). Triple digit air temperatures are expected again on Friday with a low level thermal ridge extending into parts of northern Oklahoma. There are low chances for a few storms to move into northwest Oklahoma during the evening, but better storm chances are expected to our north. A shortwave trough is expected to move across the southern and central Plains on Saturday. Thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon and move into parts of northern Oklahoma during the late afternoon or evening. It`s possible that storms coverage, and a strong low level jet may allow storms to develop through the evening hours, before dissipating overnight. After the shortwave trough moves northeast of the area by Sunday, the mid and upper ridge is expected to become established across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic region of the U.S. Perhaps a disturbance to our southeast and/or northwest will bring better chances of thunderstorms by early next week, but a majority of the area may stay dry through Monday/Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Light to breezy south winds and VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period. There is a low chance for patchy fog in southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas tomorrow morning. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 69 93 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 69 97 70 97 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 69 94 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 69 102 69 98 / 0 0 20 0 Ponca City OK 69 97 71 96 / 0 0 10 0 Durant OK 67 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...14