464
FXUS64 KOUN 161625
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

    - Isolated showers/storms west this afternoon/evening.

    - Above average temperatures much of this week

    - Rain chances Tuesday night/Wednesday north and west, higher
      rain chances areawide starting Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

An altocumulus field with a few small showers has developed in
northwest Oklahoma early this morning. These will likely persist
through the morning hours, but may not linger through sunrise so
at the moment will not include any mentionable POPs for this
morning, but we will be watching the trends. This afternoon, once
again there is the potential of isolated showers and storms to
develop in the west as we have seen the last few days. Again
without any significant forcing, the expectation is that the
convection will be rather isolated and likely not worth 20 percent
POPs, but will again include isolated thunderstorms in the weather
grid between 21Z and 03Z tonight.

The mid-level ridge continues to build into the area with rising
500 mb heights today. But at the same time, easterly low-level
winds today have a slight negative temperature advection
component, so forecast high temperatures are a degree or two lower
than yesterday. Not that it matters much because it is still
going to be quite warm by mid September standards.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Mid-level shortwave vorticity in the southwesterly flow above the
High Plains will approach the area tomorrow night as the western
U.S. longwave trough ejects toward the northern Rockies and
northern Plains. There will be a decent chance to see scattered
showers and storms in the west and north Tuesday night into
Wednesday as this shortwave brushes northwestern Oklahoma.
Although the mid-level ridge flattens somewhat as this shortwave
moves by.

After this shortwave moves by, the mid-level ridge will build
even more strongly over the southern Plains with the 588 dm 500 mb
geopotential height contour expanding well north of the Oklahoma,
so even warmer temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday with
some triple digit highs likely in the west. Some daily high
records may be in jeopardy. But as we get to the weekend, the next
longwave trough will eject from the western United States toward
the Plains, and is forecast to move farther south than the early
week system. This will bring higher rain chances across the area
potentially starting Friday night, although the trend in the
models is a bit slower with this system so the better chances may
be a little later into the weekend. Will not deviate from NBM POPs
yet, but will watch the model and NBM forecast trends.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

East to east-southeast winds will continue through the TAF
period. Most locations will see winds around 5-10 kts, with areas
across western, northwestern, and northern Oklahoma getting gusts
above 10 kts. MVFR ceilings are expected to move into southern
Oklahoma overnight, affecting KDUA until after sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  87  67  91 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         65  93  69  96 /  10   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  66  94  70  98 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           64  93  66  96 /  10   0  30  20
Ponca City OK     63  89  67  92 /   0   0   0  20
Durant OK         66  89  67  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...13