913
FXUS64 KOUN 261110
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
610 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 416 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

The storms have moved out. There is some stratus and a few areas
of 2 to 6 mile visibility with some light fog across north central
and west central Oklahoma. Will not include the mention of fog in
the grids at this point since visibilities are still above 2
miles, but will watch trends and add fog if necessary. The cold
front (if you want to call it cold) is moving through western
Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles now and will move through
the area through the day. It will bring lower dewpoint and
northwest winds, but not cooler weather. In fact with the sunny
skies, lower humidity and downslope component to winds, most
areas will see warmer temperatures today than yesterday. But this
airmass will allow for a pleasant, cooler night tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 416 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

After another quiet day Monday, we will go into a more active
pattern/stormy pattern again. But at least in this pattern,
organized severe weather does not look at likely. On Monday night
and Tuesday, southerly low-level flow begins to develop over
Texas and isentropic lift over the frontal surface aids in
thunderstorm development as early as Tuesday morning. Meanwhile,
with an easterly/upslope component to the surface winds north of
the warm front will help to produce additional storms over the
High Plains that will move toward the area as well. This will be
the first of a number of storm complexes rolling off the High
Plains toward the forecast area through the mid to late week time
frame under zonal or northwesterly flow aloft. With thunderstorm
complexes such as this, we will have some potential to see severe
weather in the form of strong winds or hail, but the severe
weather potential will be more dependent on mesoscale features and
not as easy to identify too far in advance compared to some of
our recent severe weather events from forcing associated with
synoptic-scale troughs. So while we may have some strong or severe
storms with these storm complexes, it is not possible to identify
specific times or areas very far in advance. In addition, with
multiple rounds of storms later this week, there will be some
potential for locally heavy rainfall and flooding if multiple
rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rain affect the same area,
although again it is way too early to be able to focus on any
specific areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will generally become more
westerly then northerly through the day; breezy in the afternoon,
then becoming light this evening.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  92  62  88  64 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         94  61  93  64 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  98  64  93  67 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           89  55  91  60 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     87  58  87  61 /  10   0   0  10
Durant OK         95  65  91  65 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...14