569
FXUS64 KOUN 201930
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
230 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

POPS for late this afternoon were increased slightly for many
areas north of I-40. With continual moisture advection into
central Oklahoma and decreasing clouds and the approach of the
mid-level wave from NM, chances are greater than near zero. Still,
storms in this region are expected to be isolated with possibly a
few more closer to Kansas.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 219 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

    - Marginal risk for severe storms across northern Oklahoma this
      afternoon, main hazard is strong downburst winds.

    - 40-60% shower/storm chances Saturday night through Monday
      morning. Marginal risk for severe storms NW half of the area.

    - Hot/humid conditions continue Saturday, cold front brings
      cooler weather Sunday into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Hot and humid conditions are in place once again this afternoon
across much of the area, though clouds have tempered the heat across
portions of central Oklahoma somewhat. We still expect a chance for
showers and storms across northern Oklahoma later this afternoon
and this evening as a shortwave currently across the panhandles
skirts by just to our north into Kansas. The convective
environment will support the risk for a few strong to severe wind
gusts with large T/Td spreads and DCAPE of 1500+ J/Kg.

Activity is expected to diminish and/or lift north of the area by
early this evening. Much of tonight into tomorrow is then expected
to be dry as the forcing with the main upper low remains to our west
across New Mexico into the panhandles. With upper ridging
remaining overhead, one more day of very hot temperatures is
expected, with highs in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

By later Saturday into Saturday night, ongoing showers and storms
across the panhandles will push into northwestern/western Oklahoma
as a cold front begins pushing slowly south and east. Moderate
chances (40-70%) for showers and storms will progress across the
area with the front on Sunday as the main upper wave ejects into
the central Plains. A marginal risk for severe storms will
accompany this activity, mainly along and north/west of the I-44
corridor. Additionally, given PWATs close to 2", heavy rain and
localized flooding will be possible.

Rain chances will diminish Monday morning as the front pushes south
of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the front, with
highs on Monday expected to be in the 70s across much of the area
to near 80 near the Red River. The cooler temperatures will
persist into midweek as upper troughing remains over the central
US. We may see additional shower/storm chances Tuesday into
Wednesday as additional shortwave energy rounds the base of the
trough, but models are not consistent on the track of this wave
and where associated rain chances will be. For now, our highest
chances during this period are across the southwestern half of the
area, but this could change.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of isolated
thunderstorms in northern Oklahoma late this afternoon and early
evening. Winds will be southerly with occasional gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  98  74  96  72 /  10   0   0  10
Hobart OK        100  72  97  70 /   0   0  10  30
Wichita Falls TX 101  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          101  71  95  60 /  20  10  50  80
Ponca City OK     98  74  98  70 /  20  10  10  40
Durant OK         99  73  98  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-038>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...09