146
FXUS63 KPAH 160003
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
703 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to stream
  northwest across southeast Missouri tonight and into Monday.
  Some places could receive another half inch of rain.

- Warm and dry conditions are expected for the rest of the week
  and even into next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 702 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed along
the northwest periphery of the region and are moving northwest.
They should exit the region in the next hour or two, leaving
just some showers streaming over far western portions of
southeast Missouri.

There is a signal in the guidance for another round of
convection to lift northwest across the Missouri Bootheel and
through the Mark Twain National Forest in the mid to late
evening. This could produce some modestly gusty winds, brief
heavy downpours, and lightning. Overnight and through Monday,
any showers or storms will be limited to Carter and Ripley
counties in Missouri. Once again a brief heavy downpour and
lightning would be the primary concerns if any storms develop
Monday. Another quarter to half inch of rainfall will be
possible over southeast Missouri.

The upper ridge is already attempting to build southwest across
the Quad State and should make its presence felt throughout the
region Monday. With persistent surface high pressure in control,
dry and warm conditions are expected through the work week and
likely through next weekend. The upper ridge may get pinched
enough by the weekend to allow for a few showers along the
northwest periphery of the region. There are some slight chance
PoPs in the forecast there, but QPF is nil.

Tuesday and Tuesday night will see the coolest conditions with
mid 80s for highs and mid to upper 50s for lows. Unfortunately,
that is still at or a bit above normal. Readings will trend a
few degrees warmer through the week, but with the surface ridge
still in control, no major increase in humidity is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 702 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through Monday evening. A few
showers will remain possible through the evening across mainly
southeast Missouri. Some guidance is hinting at the potential
for patchy fog overnight mainly along and west of the
Mississippi River, but with the amount of mid level sky cover
forecast, any fog should remain localized. Light east winds
tonight will pick up to 5 to 10 knots on Monday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RJP
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...RJP