Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
188 FXUS63 KPAH 231711 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1211 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The appearance of triple digit heat indices will expand daily until reaching a peak Tuesday, when Advisory levels at or above 105 degrees are expected. - Best rain/storm chances will accompany the approach and passage of cold fronts today and Wednesday. The Wednesday fropa will end the daily oppression of heat/humidity as slightly cooler and drier air arrives toward the week`s end. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Active convection extends into northern MO along the approaching cold front. The speed tracker puts its 30 mph advance into our northern CWA around daybreak, with some prefrontal activity possible up to a few hours before that. The more generously modeled instability is about 800 Joules of MUCAPE in the lower 1KM, but 700-500MB lapse rates are challenged at only about 5C/KM. Better instability is available as we heat up, with upwards to about 2500 Joules/KG available to tap along and ahead of the boundary where dew points pool in the lower 70s as highs reach into the lower 90s even with some cloud cover across our southern counties where it makes passage this afternoon. SPC still carries a Marginal risk along the boundary, and the Machine Learning model suggests upwards to a 15% probability of severe wind gusts is possible. However, it is still clearly showing the best severe risk is displaced to our north and east, nearer the parent low`s track. High pressure fast strengthens Monday-Tuesday, resulting in soaring air temperatures into the mid (Monday) to upper (Tuesday) 90s. Dew points around 70F will produce some triple digit heat indices with more widespread triple digits, including some Advisory level 105s or better, slated for Tuesday. The next cold front`s approach and passage comes Wednesday. Frontal associated pops begin Tuesday night and peak with fropa Wednesday afternoon. There will be equal or better MUCAPE and bulk shear available, along with the presence of an MCV with this boundary. It`s too early to detail at this writing, but we`re anticipating a strong/severe storm risk with this passage being introduced eventually. This mid week fropa will break the oppressive heat/humidity for at least a day as dew points drop thru the 60s and highs Thursday top out nearer climo norms at 88-91F. However we quickly heat up again heading into the weekend as high pressure reasserts itself and we develop a warming southwesterly flow pattern. Highs return right back into the mid 90s with triple digit heat indices reappearing as dew points sling their way back into the lower 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A frontal boundary making passage will switch winds around from SW to NW this afternoon. Some gusts in the 15-20 kt range possible. An isolated shower or storm is possible this afternoon across mainly west Kentucky, primarily south of the terminal sites. Some lingering MVFR cigs will become low VFR through the afternoon. SKC expected this evening through tomorrow as high pressure builds in. Can`t rule out some patchy fog tonight, with west Kentucky near Tennessee border most favored. Elsewhere the drier air moving in may largely prevent it. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...SP