Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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183 FXUS63 KPAH 221729 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1229 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily heat index values around 100 will peak around 105 by Tuesday. - Best rain/storm chances will accompany the approach and passage of cold fronts Sunday and Wednesday. The Wednesday fropa will end the daily oppression of heat/humidity as slightly cooler and drier air arrives for the week`s end. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 High pressure at the surface and aloft remains strong today as the ridge anchors over Appalachia and much of the South. We think some of the model production of qpf to our east will remain there and have chosen to keep pops silent given the anticipated strength of overall columnar subsidence and warm capping temps aloft. Dew points today range from the mid 60s to around 70 and hover in the lower 70s Sunday. More sunshine today vs Sunday means highs today in the mid 90s vs highs Sunday in the lower 90s. The net resultant Heat Index peaks around 100 degrees both days. A cold front`s approach introduces pops in our north late tonight, which peaks in the chance category range Sunday afternoon/evening. MUCAPEs 2000-3000 J/KG along and ahead of the front with 3KM Bulk Shear values of 20-25 kts supports the broadly drawn Marginal risk that SPC arcs into our FA, however, the best energy will remain displaced well to the north and east in the vicinity of the primary low pressure system making its passage from the Great Lakes into New England. Temps soar right back into the mid (Monday) to upper (Tuesday) 90s as H8 temps peak around 22C Tuesday. Dew points by Tuesday are likewise right back into the lower 70s, so Tuesday is the likely headline day for Heat Index values which peak around/in excess of the 105 degree Advisory threshold. Another wave of energy not dissimilar to this weekend will migrate from the Great Lakes to New England again on Wednesday and once again, will trail its cold front along the Ohio Valley and thru the PAH FA. We can`t argue the NBM`s high chance to likely pops with its approach/passage and suspect this will be our next best chance for strong storms/heavy rains as well, which are reflected by the painting of Marginal risk exceeding FFG in the extended WPC graphic. Cooler and drier air works in after this 2nd fropa, which brings a nice respite from the daily heat/humidity as we finish out the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 SCT-BKN cu deck this afternoon along with a southwest wind sustained around 8-12 kts. Some gusts of 15-20 kts likely, especially across the north. Band of showers enters the northwest after 08z and should gradually decay as it spreads southeast. Thus not sure how much southern areas will receive Sunday morning. Primarily mid cloud associated with it. Winds switch around to westerly and then northwesterly through the day. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...SP