Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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000 FXUS63 KPAH 231155 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 655 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday. A few severe storms with damaging winds and possibly some hail cannot be ruled out this afternoon and evening and again Tuesday afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall will occur with thunderstorms. - A cold front moves through Tuesday leaving behind cooler conditions for the remainder of the forecast. - Daily chances of rain are forecast Wednesday through next weekend, as an upper-level low pressure center lingers over the Quad State. - A tropical system developing over the western Caribbean Sea is expected to develop as it moves north through the eastern Gulf of Mexico this week. There is some potential that the remnants of this system could bring some heavy rain to the Quad State late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A positively-tilted upper trough over the central Plains early this morning will move eastward through the Mid-Mississippi Valley through Tuesday. An associated diffuse cold front over the region will be held up today and tonight, as an area of low pressure rides northeast along it. The front will shift east of the Quad State later Tuesday. This situation will allow multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms to develop and lift northeast across the Quad State through Tuesday. Much of the 00Z and later guidance indicates that there will be a round of convection this morning, mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, with a relative lull across the region this afternoon. The most persistent signal in guidance has been for widespread convection with heavy rainfall tonight into Tuesday. Although there are some timing differences, the general consensus is for the convection to come to an end from the west through the day Tuesday. With widespread cloud cover expected through the period, it will be difficult to destabilize, leading to meager instability. Shear will generally be increasing through Tuesday when the upper trough passes. This very marginal environmental set up could support a few severe storms with mainly a damaging wind concern this afternoon and early evening. With better shear expected Tuesday, a few severe storms will be possible again in the east, if there is any instability to work with. Additional rainfall through Tuesday will average 1" to 1.5" over most of the Quad State. Lesser amounts are expected over southern portions of west Kentucky. These amounts should not result in significant flooding issues, but drainage systems may be briefly overwhelmed in the heaviest downpours. Once the cold front and associated convection exit the area late Tuesday, surface high pressure should result in cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week. Highs will be at or a bit below normal, while lows will remain around 5 degrees above normal. In the wake of the early week storm system, more energy will descend from Canada and settle as a closed low somewhere across the mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday. The low will support daily chances of showers through next Monday. The tropical system attempting to develop over the western Caribbean Sea is expected to lift north through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and will interact with the upper low. There is considerable uncertainty in the location of the upper low and in how it will interact with the tropical system. However, there is the possibility that some tropical moisture could be drawn around the east side of the upper low and into the Quad State. This would lead to increased humidity and more widespread heavy rainfall potential. At this time, it looks like this would be most likely late Thursday into Friday. WPC QPF from Wednesday night through next Monday ranges from around 1" in Pike county Indiana to over 4" in Ripley county Missouri. We will have to keep a close eye on this situation for some potential flooding concerns, especially given the rainfall that has recently fallen and that is expected to fall early this week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 655 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 An area of convection will impact KCGI in the first hour of the forecast, then spread north to KMVN where it may linger for much of the day. A broken line of storms may move through the area in the 21z-03z time frame. More widespread showers and some storms will be possible in the late evening and overnight hours. IFR and lower ceilings have developed at KMVN this morning and will slowly lift through the day. More widespread IFR and lower ceilings will be possible overnight. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...DRS