190
FXUS63 KPAH 271913
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
213 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The humidity returns Friday with heat indices back around
  100.

- Shower and storm chances return on Saturday and linger into
  the first half of Sunday. Another rain chance returns
  Wednesday.

- Pattern into next week features a battle between oppressive
  heat and short periods of relief in between. Saturday and
  Wednesday are forecast to be the most uncomfortable days of
  the next week. The 4th of July looks stormy for now.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Warm and less humid today following the passage of a "cooler
than it was" front yesterday. Mid 70s dewpoints are not far away
however and should pick up where they left off tomorrow. Heat
indices will push to near or slightly above 100 by tomorrow
afternoon. A residual 700mb inversion and poor mid-level lapse
rates should prevent much in the way of shower/storm development
despite the moisture advection.

An upper/mid level shortwave trough passes to the north Friday
night into Saturday which sends a "cold" front towards the area
once again. The lower level flow gets pretty parallel to the
front by the time it arrives and it looks like it could slow
down/stall or become pretty ineffective at clearing out the
higher dewpoints through Sunday. The pattern looks relatively
favorable for MCS development, especially to our northwest
Friday night. Deep layer shear is fairly good, with MLCAPEs at
about 2500 J/kg by the afternoon, assuming we don`t get a
morning MCS clearing things out. I think thunderstorms are a
pretty good bet Saturday but timing them will be difficult. If
we don`t end up with clouds and storms the heat index will be a
front row factor as it won`t take much with mid 70s dewpoints to
get into advisory territory (105 F). For now lingered PoPs on
Sunday given the lingering moisture.

Things do clear out more definitively Sunday night into Monday,
with Monday looking a lot like today. Moisture/humidity returns
by Tuesday with another broader/stronger upper trough beginning
to approach. This sets us up for now with a fairly stormy 4th of
July forecast across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. Drier air
in the lower levels should mitigate fog formation overnight. A
south wind will pick up by late morning Friday with humidity
returning but it will likely be insufficient for showers or
storms to develop.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG