Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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465 FXUS63 KPAH 171653 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions are expected for the rest of the week into the first half of the weekend. - Afternoon relative humidities are forecast to drop to 25-35% through at least Wednesday; however, winds will remain fairly light. The drier air and warmer temperatures may lead to an increase in brush fire activity across the area, especially where very little rain occurred over the past week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Updated Aviation discussion for the 18z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Some patchy ground fog is showing up at a few of the observation sites across the Quad State area this morning; otherwise, fairly quiet weather conditions are in place with temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s. Sky conditions are mostly clear across the area. A dry surface ridge will steadily build across the area today and then linger through much of the week. At the same time, an upper- level ridge axis will shift from the Plains eastward across the entire Quad State region. This will keep very quiet weather in place with dry conditions lingering through much of the week. The main concern will be lower afternoon relative humidity values with deeper afternoon mixing. This will likely lead to relative humidity values dropping into the 25-35% range through at least Wednesday and possibly even into Thursday. Winds will remain fairly light, but the very dry air coupled with above normal temperatures may lead to an increase in brush fires across the area once again. Areas that received over an inch of rain may see less of an impact until Wednesday or Thursday. The next chance of precipitation doesn`t show up in the forecast until later Saturday into Sunday. Overall moisture is set to increase; however, no major forcing is showing up to justify much more than an isolated chance of showers and storms. Definitely nothing that looks like a drought buster through this entire forecast issuance. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s through the weekend before cooling off slightly into early next week. Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Light northeast surface flow will continue through this afternoon, with winds becoming calm or light and variable overnight. With increasing low-level moisture, areas of fog development are likely again at CGI, PAH, and MVN in the predawn hours Wednesday. Some IFR or LIFR restrictions are possible at CGI. Fog will quickly mix out after 13z Wednesday, with light NE flow continuing through the remainder of the forecast period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DWS DISCUSSION...KC AVIATION...DWS