261
FXUS63 KPAH 201705
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1205 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunday will bring the most heat, humidity, and best storm
  chances heading into the weekend.

- Wednesday will then offer the next best chance of the same
  for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

High pressure at both the surface and aloft builds in bascially
overtop our Forecast Area into the weekend. The result will be
daytime high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s, with heat
indices 95-100 degrees. While the chance of a daytime
shower/storm is not zero, it`s 10% or less, and effectively
silent in the forecast, through Saturday.

A cold front approaches late Saturday night, and makes its
passage Sunday. With its parent low north of the Great Lakes,
the system`s energy translates mostly into/across the Middle and
Upper Ohio Valley. Nevertheless, the boundary`s presence will
see us with a 20-30% pop until it clears the area. Drier dew
points work in on the post frontal northerly component (NW-N)
winds. Despite the one day reprieve (Monday) from higher dew
points, we`ll still heat up again into the low-mid 90s.

Another, similar frontal passage is modeled to occur again by
mid week. It brings our next best chance of storms Wednesday.
Similar to the early week fropa, high temperatures average in
the 90s both before and after this 2nd front`s passage too.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

SCT cu field around 5kft this afternoon will transition to
mainly clear skies tonight aside from some high clouds streaming
in, which then linger into Friday morning. Additional cu
development expected by late morning Friday. Winds will be light
and variable, under 5 kts, through the entire period. Some
patchy fog may occur again late tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...SP