Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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640 FXUS63 KPAH 101156 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 656 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Spectacular weather is in store for the first half of the week, with comfortable temperatures and refreshing humidity levels. - Heat and humidity will arrive for the second half of the week through next weekend. The hottest temperatures of the season are forecast Thursday-Sunday. - Dry weather is expected for the next several days, with the next chance of rain not forecast until very late next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 655 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Visibility values have greatly improved across the Dense Fog Advisory area in the southern KY Pennyrile, so felt comfortable canceling it early. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Today through Tuesday night...A refreshing airmass associated with an area of Canadian high pressure is slowly filtering southward into the region. Lingering low-level moisture across southern parts of southeast MO, far southern IL, and western KY have resulted in patchy fog formation, especially in the southern KY Pennyrile and Ozark Foothill river valleys. Have hoisted an SPS for locally dense fog for these areas through 11z, but if dense fog coverage increases, a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed later this morning. The first two days of the work week will be about as nice as it gets for our part of the world in early June. Temperatures today will climb into the middle to upper 70s with very comfortable humidity levels. A passing H5 ripple of energy will bring an increase in cloud cover this afternoon, but the low levels will be very dry, suppressing any precipitation development. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the lower to middle 50s. Some areas in the Wabash Valley could even see lows dip into the upper 40s! Tuesday will see more of the same, with highs in the middle to upper 70s under mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows Tuesday night will be slightly warmer, in the middle to upper 50s. Wednesday through Sunday...A return to more typical summertime weather will begin Wednesday. Surface high pressure will translate east of the region. While the region will stay dry, southerly return flow will advect increasing amounts of heat and moisture into the region. High temperatures on Wednesday will be several degrees warmer, reaching the middle to upper 80s. Humidity levels will still be tolerable, and overnight lows Wednesday night will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s. For Thursday through Sunday, a more intense H5 ridge looks to build over the region from the central Great Plains. Temperatures at both 850 mb and 700 mb will rise to around the 95th percentile via the 12z/09 NAEFS ensemble guidance. This will result in the hottest temperatures of the season so far late this week. NBM ensemble guidance gives a 30-50% chance of high temperatures exceeding 90 degrees on Thursday, and a 70-90% chance on Friday. The ridging may relax slightly on Saturday, but most areas will still have a 50-80% of exceeding 90 degrees for daytime highs. The ridging will intensify on Sunday, with a 70-100% of highs in the 90s. Dew point temperatures Thursday through Sunday will climb from the lower to middle 60s on Thursday, to the middle to upper 60s on Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, dew point temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s (sultry!). Our first triple digit heat index values of the season appear likely during this period. Our next chance of mentionable precipitation arrives late Sunday night into early next week. Model guidance is hinting at the potential for tropical moisture to be drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico in the area, bringing increasing PoPs from south to north. The details of the duration and intensity of this rainfall will become more clear in the coming days. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 655 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Any lingering BCFG at CGI, PAH, and MVN should be mixed out by 13z at the very latest. Otherwise, VFR conditions will be the rule. SCT- BKN decks AOA 5-7kft will move into the region from north to south from late morning into early this afternoon. They will quickly dissipate by 24z, with clear skies forecast thereafter. N-NW winds will pick up at 7-12 kts, with gusts approaching 20 kts possible this afternoon at EVV and perhaps OWB. Winds will relax tonight, becoming N to NNE. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DWS DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...DWS