Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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538 FXUS63 KPAH 182301 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 601 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly over southwest Indiana and west Kentucky. - Warmer temperatures return late this week and continue into the weekend. Highs in the mid to upper 90`s arrive Friday and continue through early next week. - Chances of showers and storms return across the region Sunday and linger through next Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 601 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 An area of thunderstorms has developed over the Pennyrile and is lifting/developing northward. With temperatures pushing 90 in Evansville, expect the storms to continue northward through southwest Indiana through sunset. Elsewhere, more isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Guidance is in pretty good agreement in building the upper ridge westward by Wednesday, but considerable high cloud also continues to stream north over the Quad state. So, the forecast continues to be dry Wednesday, but high temperatures will only be around 90. The ridge will continue to build overhead achieving its greatest strength Friday into Saturday. Guidance continues to flatten the ridge substantially Sunday, leaving the Quad State on the fringe of weak westerly flow aloft. Disturbances in the flow will bring daily chances of thunderstorms Sunday through next Tuesday. With little flow to organize convection, these storms will generally be of the pulse variety and carry a torrential rain, gusty wind, and lightning threat. As for temperatures, highs will not reach the mid 90s until Friday, but then mid to upper 90s will be the rule over the weekend. Despite some minor boundaries working south into the area, temperatures Monday and Tuesday remain in the lower to middle 90s. It still appears that the humidity will not be a huge factor during this hot spell, but heat indices will likely reach 100 over some portion of the area each day Friday through Tuesday. We will have to monitor trends closely for the potential need to issue a Heat Advisory for all or a portion of the Quad State at some point in this period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 601 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 VFR conditions are generally expected to continue through the TAF period. A few isolated showers are around the Quad State, lingering through the evening. There are a couple storms likely to stay east of the eastern sites like KOWB. Winds will be light overnight and only increase to around 5-8 kts tomorrow out of the south/southeast. High cloud coverage will decrease over time. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...Air Quality Alert from midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ Wednesday night to midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ Thursday night for INZ081-082- 085>088. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...ATL DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...ATL